When Will the Coronavirus Surge Hit Your State?

The projected death totals have risen dramatically for Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, while decreasing for the other three New England states

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The latest data shows the projections for when the coronavirus surge could hit each New England state and how many people could die have changed dramatically from just over a week ago.

On March 30, the projections showed that the estimated peak ranges were from April 9 for Vermont to April 20 for New Hampshire. But that has already changed as new data has continued to come in. In most cases the surge is happening sooner than originally expected.

In a paper produced with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modeled when all 50 states will see a surge in cases.

Researchers had predicted that the spread of the virus was likely to peak in Massachusetts around April 14. But that date has now moved back to April 20, which is within Gov. Charlie Baker's projected April 10 to April 20 range. The projected death total, however, has risen dramatically, from 1,782 to 5,625.

COVID-19 projections

StateEstimated peakBeds neededBeds availableBed shortageDeaths projected through Aug. 4, 2020
ConnecticutApril 216,7051,7384,9674,003
MaineApril 172231,0610108
MassachusettsApril 208,0284,8483,1805,625
New HampshireApril 161511,018066
Rhode IslandApril 251,471795676848
VermontApril 179533047

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

Connecticut's surge is now expected on April 21, compared to an earlier projection of April 10. The number of projected deaths in that state has risen greatly as well, going from 378 to 4,003.

Maine's surge is now expected to hit earlier, on April 21 instead of April 25. The projected deaths have dropped by more than a third, from 373 to 108.

Vermont's peak was on April 1, meaning it has already passed. The projected death totals there have now dropped from 95 to 47.

New Hampshire's peak was originally expected to be at the very end of April, but it has now shifted to April 16. Projected death totals in the Granite State have decreased from 351 to 66.

And Rhode Island, which was originally looking at an April 19 peak, is now looking at about a week later on April 25. The projected death totals have risen from 351 to 848.

In the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic, many doctors may be faced with unthinkable choices.

The University of Washington model incorporates measures the states have already taken to slow new infections, such as closing schools and non-essential businesses.

It predicts hospitals here would need around 9,000 more beds to handle an expected surge of patients during the peak.

And it projects nearly 11,000 people in New England could die by early August. More than 700 people in the region have already died as a result of the coronavirus.

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