Weather often works like a pendulum. After weeks of warm and dry, we now swing wet and colder in New England.
The current rainstorm has delivered a months worth of rain - 3 to 7 inches in many areas, erasing what had been a prolonged dry spell. October will end up in the books as one of the warmest on record, and now may approach one of the wettest too.
By Halloween, we are cold and dry, but before then, we have a potential moderate to major Nor'easter in the works for Sunday into Monday.
Saturday looks nice, as high-pressure should bring us sunshine and mild temperatures in the 60s for most.
Sunday goes downhill quickly, as a front from Canada will merge with the storm coming out of the tropics, for significant rain and wind later Sunday into early Monday.
Low pressure will deepen rapidly as it passes near southern New England just before sunrise on Monday, with heavy rain, and wind gusting past 50 miles per hour.
Trying to time and place arrival of rain and wind is a challenge from this far out... but here is our latest estimate:
Rain arrives in western New England by noon Sunday, advancing rapidly toward the north and east after noon.
How about the Patriots game in Foxborough? Light rain may arrive during the first half, becoming steady and moderate by the end of the game. Temperatures will be in the 60s, and then cool a little as rain becomes heavier. Wind from the southeast 10 to 20 miles per hour increases to 20 to 30 miles per hour before sunset.
The real impact from the storm is likely 7 p.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday, a little later toward the Canadian boarder, as the storm moves swiftly from south to north. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely for a few hours overnight.
Wind over the waters may gust 65 to 75 miles per hour from the east/southeast. Seas will build to 10 to 15 feet near shore, 15 to 25 feet offshore. Wind over the land may gust past 55 miles per hour causing tree damage and widespread power outages.
The good news is that the storm will race northward at about 60 miles per hour, likely along our east coast. Some may even see an eye-like feature with wind from the east, fading quickly to near calm, than increasing to 20 to 30 miles per hour from the west before diminishing rapidly during the day Monday.
Fortunately, the heart of the storm may pass at low tide around midnight Sunday, never the less, coastal erosion is likely. We will monitor for possible coastal flooding as we get a better handle of timing.
Rain may change to snow and higher elevations of New York and Vermont before ending. That storm is gone for most of us by Monday afternoon, with increasing sunshine and colder air, temperatures falling through the 50s into the 40s.
Halloween looks nice with sunshine high temperature in the low 50s, then falling through the 40s into the 30s at trick-or-treat time.
Another colder storm is likely the second half of next week, more on that as we get closer.