We have a flood watch and wind advisories for most of the six-state region.
A powerful front is crossing west to east across New England Thursday. Torrential downpours and melting snow may result in flooding and wind may gust past 50 mph with a thunderstorm. Also, patchy dense fog is a possibility.
Temperatures are warming into the 50s in southern and eastern New England, in the 40s west. That warm air results in melting snow, combined with 1-to-3-inches of rainfall is the reason we have a flood watch. Streets, basements, and rivers are prone to flooding Thursday.
There’s even a slight chance of some ice jam flooding in northern New England, though the ice is pretty thick and the recent dry snowpack should be able to absorb much of the rain in northern New England.
Cold air arrives in Vermont in time to change rain back to snow in the mountains before ending late Thursday. Otherwise, there should be a good gap between the end of the rain around sunset, and the onset of freezing weather around midnight.
Most of the main roads should dry out before any ice forms. But as for the fields and yards, they will likely turn icy by Friday morning and may stay that way through next week and beyond.
Weak high pressure comes in Friday with a mixture of sun and clouds, but there’s another arctic front in the afternoon that may generate a snow shower or a snow squall. High temperature in the 30s south and 20s north.
Colder air eases in on Saturday with a high temperature in the 20s south and teens north, with a good amount of sunshine, but also some heavy clouds going by with a chance of a few flurries or snow showers. Wind looks light and variable.
The polar vortex is on the move, to near Lake Superior this weekend, anytime that happens we have to be on the watch out for little elements coming at us from the west. One such wave of low pressure is going to cross Saturday night and Sunday morning with a few inches of snow possible.
Though there is extremely cold air up in the sky, at the surface, wind may come in from the southwest and allow parts of New England to warm above freezing on Sunday and Monday. But the atmosphere is very unstable and snow showers are possible at any time.
The stakes go up even higher Monday night and Tuesday, and into Wednesday. There will be a storm forming out over the ocean, and another one over Ontario.
If they stay separate, we just end up with a wintry mix. But if they join together we end up with a major winter storm. Confidence is very low in this period, please stay tuned in on first alert 10-day forecasts.