After being spoiled by some incredible spring weather a couple of weeks ago, it’s a tough realignment to settle into this pattern of highs in the 50s and occasional showers and realize: this is what’s normal for New England this time of the year. From temperatures to showers, it all fits the April New England bill.
We’re coming off a soaking spring rain this weekend, with rain amounts ranging from a third of an inch at the South Shore of Massachusetts to over three inches of rain in Connecticut, but all of it enough to cut the pollen count to moderate for one day and bring the brush fire danger to low.
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In the days ahead, even with an increased chance of showers, New England sees both pollen and brush fire danger rising again, and it’s not like each of these days are miserable. In fact, Monday is a great example, with limited sun, building clouds, but mostly dry conditions for a lot of New England until afternoon into early evening, when scattered showers develop, particularly north of a line from Bradley, Connecticut, to Brockton, Massachusetts.
Eventually, by Monday evening, a brief shower may even skirt Cape Cod before showers dwindle overnight until partial clearing with patchy fog by dawn and low temperatures either side of 40 degrees.
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Tuesday brings a near-repeat of Monday’s weather, with breaks of morning sun, building clouds, and scattered afternoon showers that will gradually diminish overnight with patchy fog. What’s interesting is although our steady weekend rain will be long gone by midweek, the upper level atmospheric energy that drove the rain here in the first place is taking its sweet time to meander east, and still will need to cross New England at midweek. Ahead of it, we should find a break in the showers for much of New England during the day Wednesday, but by Wednesday evening and night, showers or even a thunderstorm return from the west and likely deliver scattered showers Thursday.
Though Friday brings a respite from shower chances, the next significant bundle of atmospheric energy will be tracking east across the nation’s midsection, caught in the storm-steering jet stream winds aloft that will point that next disturbance at New England, meaning clouds Saturday likely lead to returning rain late Saturday into Sunday.
Yet again, the potential exists for a slow transition of that energy aloft, meaning showers may linger into the first half of next week.
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That said, we see no exceptional warmth or cold in the forecast for the foreseeable future, and while it would be nice to see slightly milder temperatures to start grass seed, it’s not a bad pattern to plant new grass, particularly in central and southern New England.
