New England’s Thanksgiving Day weather is about as good as they come in our corner of the nation: regionwide sunshine or fair sky, temperatures rising to around 50 south and 40s north, slightly above seasonal normals, and a morning northwest breeze gusting to 30 mph subsiding during the afternoon.
With a quieting wind Thanksgiving evening and night, temperatures will drop through the 30s and into the 20s in Central and Northern New England under a mostly clear sky, though an approaching cold front will deliver both some clouds and some attendant snow showers to the North Country of New England overnight Thursday night.
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This cold front continues to track southeast across New England on Friday without much fanfare as it intersects dry air, prohibiting substantial cloud growth outside of some flurries from time to time. The big change comes behind this cold front with a shot of colder-than-normal air that makes itself known Friday night when low temperatures drop into the teens for most, with a steady northwest breeze sending wind chill values into the teens.
This all will spell a bit of a shock to the system on Saturday, as sunshine will be deceptive – one step outside will reveal the winter preview this Canadian air delivers, with high temperatures Saturday stuck in the 30s, with a modest westerly breeze creating a slight wind chill to add further bite to the air.
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That said, the cold air will be dry air, so no precipitation is expected. The cold shot of air is a quick one – though Sunday won’t be mild, we’ll already notice the difference in air as high temperatures return to the 40s for many, especially in the southern half of New England.
Clouds will increase Sunday, well in advance of a storm center approaching from the Great Lakes, and while it doesn’t look like that storm will arrive with snow and rain showers until Sunday night, those traveling out of New England to end the holiday weekend and heading into Upstate NY or Central to Northern PA likely will want to get an early start.
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Even south of New England through New Jersey, Philadelphia and into the Mid-Atlantic along the I-95 corridor will be wet by Sunday evening, which certainly will slow road travel. Here at home, snow and rain showers won’t arrive to New England until later Sunday evening and night, continuing as snow into early Monday morning in the North Country and falling as predominantly rain in Southern New England after a little deep inland snow to start.
Early estimates of snow accumulation from our First Alert Team are on the order of two to six inches in Northern New England, a coating to two inches in the higher terrain of Western MA and the Monadnock Region and between ¾ and one inch of rain in the rest of Southern New England, departing early Monday for some breaks of sun and highs in the 40s before cooler air settles in for the remainder of next week.
It’s worth noting, next week’s cool weather pattern would favor snow in any storms that head our way, but right now it looks like the jet stream won’t favor nearby storms during the week until perhaps next weekend in our exclusive 10-day forecast, though at this point, it’s too early to see how the players will come together.
