High temperatures will be in the upper 40s Thursday afternoon with a shield of cloud cover moving in ahead of our next storm system.
Friday brings the main event. Damaging wind, heavy rain, minor to pockets of moderate river flooding, and minor coastal flooding all possible. Even some thunderstorms could roll through with the energy moving through the northeast.
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Widespread heavy rain holds off until Friday. However, the latest forecast model shows a heavy band of rain and storms moving into Connecticut and Rhode Island from the southwest around the evening drive. Rain picks up in intensity and in coverage across southern New England around 11 p.m. Raining buckets and the wind picks up. Steady rain continues through the Friday morning drive as a warm front lifts north through Massachusetts. Heavy rain still falling through the evening drive and overnight Friday. Cold front passes through Saturday morning. Here’s where details are still being sorted out. There could be a secondary front after the low pressure center passes through northern New England Saturday afternoon. As colder Canadian air funnels in, we may get a wintry mix and light snow across the mountains Saturday.
RAIN & FLOODING:
Heavy rain has been a lock on most models for a few days. We still anticipate 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Saturday morning. This will lead to urban flooding and some minor to pockets of moderate river flooding (depending on where the heaviest rain bands set up).
The wind will begin to pick up Friday morning. With peak gusts 55 to 65mph from the south, southeast will be possible across the south coast, Cape Cod and the Islands by Friday night. Power outages will be possible, as well as minor damage (trees down, outdoor furniture moved, etc.).
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Coastal flooding looks to be minor with about a 2 foot storm surge on top of high tide along the south coast. Tides are astronomically high due to the full moon on Saturday. High tides Friday morning and night are the ones to watch. The highest wave heights of 10 to 15+ feet may actually be during the low tide. Something we will keep a close watch on.
Drying and cooling off Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Highs in the low 40s by Monday. Monday we have an increased chance for a wintry mix, drying off Christmas Day. Then a seemingly active weather pattern continues through the end of next week.