Hurricane Dorian continues to work northward, paralleling the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. By Friday night, the storm will be passing southeast of Nantucket, bringing some impacts to New England.
HIGH SEAS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
Regardless of how close Dorian comes to New England, we’ll see a high risk of rip currents as seas build on Friday.
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Waves Friday into early Saturday will reach 10 to 20 feet in New England waters, with wave heights as high as 40 feet closer to the center of Dorian well south of Nantucket.
TROPICAL RAIN: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
While the center of Dorian makes its closest pass Friday night and early Saturday, clouds will increase ahead of the storm during the day on Friday before that point. Most of Friday will be dry, but during the afternoon and evening we’ll watch the first showers lifting up from the south, moving towards the South Coast, Cape, and Islands.
Overnight Friday into Saturday tropical downpours will likely overspread at least some of the area, particularly Southeastern Massachusetts. While showers and lighter rain will extend into parts of Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, areas in far Northern and Western New England likely stay totally dry.
Just how much rain is still somewhat in question. If the storm travels a bit closer to us, totals will be higher and more of us will see rain. If the storm wobbles a bit farther east, farther offshore, totals will be lower and fewer of us will get wet.
So, while Saturday morning is still rainy, mainly south and east, rain will end and sun will develop over the course of the midday and afternoon hours as the storm quickly moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.
That means most afternoon and evening plans around New England will be fine. The gloomy conditions will last longest in Coastal Maine and on the Cape and Islands.
STRONG WINDS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
Like the rain, the intensity of winds that we see will depend on how close Dorian comes to us. Closer means more wind, farther means less.
Regardless, winds on Friday will pick up off of the water as the storm nears. Expect east-northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph during the day.
Right now gusts of 40 to 60 mph are expected across parts of Southeastern Massachusetts, including the Cape and the Islands, mainly overnight Friday and early Saturday morning.
Closer to Boston, gusts of 25 to 45 mph are expected.
Winds will gradually diminish Saturday afternoon and evening.
We’ll continue to monitor the exact track of Dorian to tweak the impacts seen across New England.