Monthly Forecast: What to Expect in July

On this first weekday of the month, our NBC10 Boston and NECN First Alert Weather Team delivers our monthly forecast for July – and it looks very promising. 

Coming off a June that was wetter than normal and very close to average temperature (just slightly warmer than normal), the big question is whether we can dry out for July, and the answer from our meteorology team is “yes.”

The cool pool of air that lingered over the central United States in June was well predicted by our First Alert Team, and disturbances riding around the periphery of that cool air sparked thunderstorms and rainstorms where warm and cool air collided. 

That included New England, where Boston, for example, saw nearly an inch-and-a-half more rain than normal for June, totaling just over five inches for the month. 

Not all of New England saw the same result, though – in fact, Worcester and Hartford were one to two inches below normal for the month. Much of northern New England was significantly wetter than usual. 

July features the cool pool in the central United States migrating slowly west as a large dome of heat builds over the Southeast. This will drive hotter than normal conditions through Atlanta and probably all the way into Washington D.C. 

Thunderstorm outbreaks are expected to develop on the northern edge of the building heat – the reason for our team’s prediction of near-normal precipitation from the Appalachian Mountains into the Mid-Atlantic States. 

Here at home, however, it looks like we’ll remain just north of that very active thunderstorm zone, at least overall, this month.  What this means for New England is likely near-normal temperatures.  However, if we were to lean in one direction or another, we’d likely lean toward warmer-than-normal given how far away the cool pool is and how close the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic heat is. We’re also expecting below normal precipitation, overall.

With July presenting New England’s warmest average temperatures of the year, this bodes well for many days with highs in the 80s. The tendency for drier-than-normal weather for the month means, on balance, vacation weeks and outdoor plans will meet with contentment from the weather. 

Of course, there is one very important point we’re making as a team of meteorologists: even a drier-than-normal July certainly doesn’t mean we avoid summertime thunderstorms. The reality is, even in a relatively dry month, storms can hit your outdoor plans.

We know how important those details are, which is why we continue to pour so much energy into making sure our daily, exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast is as accurate as it can be, so you can plan your weddings, parties, vacation days and workouts with confidence.

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