Another quiet week of weather is shaping up for New England in a weather pattern that features a “split stream” – that is, cold Canadian energy speeding across the northern tier of the United States with deep moisture locked in a southern stream to the south.
When the two streams interact, we get juicy but mostly fast-moving storms like we saw this past weekend. Over the next several days, our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows a continuation of a similar weather pattern, with one energetic but relatively moisture-starved disturbance touching off scattered rain and snow showers Monday afternoon and evening, then another turning the winds favorable for some ocean-enhanced snow showers Tuesday overnight on Cape Cod.
For now, the variable clouds that build in our Monday sky will drop some mixed showers, but with high temperatures running well above the melting point, the biggest impact other than hitting the windshield wiper intermittently in some communities for the drive home from work will be to drop moisture on our roadways prior to dark. While most communities will probably see this moisture dry before it freezes, some towns – particularly in central and northern New England – may have enough lingering road moisture for patches of black ice by Tuesday morning.
Thereafter, the most influential player on New England’s midweek weather will be cooler air arriving with wind direction favoring some ocean-enhanced snow showers on Cape Cod overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, then drier air will take over for chilly winter sunshine Wednesday and Thursday.
The next storm developing out of the Mississippi River Valley will tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but the jet stream winds aloft – the fast river of air that steers storm systems – will favor carrying the brunt of this storm south of New England. Though the jet stream favors New England only on the northern periphery, there are wildly varying solutions on where this storm could go – from an inland track of rain to an offshore miss.
To sift through the possibilities, we turn to our exclusive NBC10/NECN Forecast System, built in-house for situations just like this, to give us and you a quantifiable chance the storm will hit. Right now, we’re seeing a 40% to 50% chance of at least some amount of rain or snow Saturday and 50% to 60% chance Sunday, but we’ll keep you posted on this each day this week in our exclusive First Alert forecast.