Weather

Warmth Set to End, Subtropical Storm Nicole Could Bring Heavy Rain to Northeast

Seasonable, November weather returns Monday night

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Monday morning showers marked the passage of a cold front from northwest to southeast across New England, and while the cooler air is quite evident across the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario, there’s enough of a lag for New England to enjoy one more mild day, even as a new wind from the west and northwest marks the start of change Monday afternoon. 

One immediate difference will be dropping humidity during Monday with sunshine returning in the drier air behind the morning’s scattered showers. After rising to record-challenging highs in the middle 70s (Boston’s record for Monday is 77 degrees, set in 1938), temperatures will fall by a few degrees by late afternoon, then, of course, Monday evening brings our first work and school day of the season to experience the new, earlier sunset of 4:30 p.m. 

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While the steady northwest breeze will send temperatures into the 30s under a clear sky for many Monday night, there will be something special toward dawn: a total lunar eclipse! The last of its kind for us to see here in New England for a couple of years, this total eclipse will start around 5:15 a.m. and still be ongoing when the moon sets in the western sky around 6:30 a.m., so it’s a relatively short window to admire the spectacle.

Thereafter, November air will spell more seasonable days Wednesday and Thursday, brightened by lots of sun but struggling to break out of the lower 50s in southern New England and 40s north. Meanwhile, a newly-named Subtropical Storm Nicole will move from a position east of the Bahamas, through the Bahamas and to the western coast of Florida by Thursday, predicted by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall as a 70 mph sustained wind storm. 

While the exact position of landfall is still to be determined, Nicole represents a healthy dose of tropical moisture that will stream north and merge with an incoming cold front over the northeast U.S. on Veterans Day Friday into Saturday. 

Right now, it looks like rain would arrive to New England either late Friday or Friday evening, with temperatures ahead of the storm reaching the 60s Thursday and Friday, then 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain falling Friday night through Saturday. Depending on the track and lingering strength of Nicole’s remnant, Saturday could bring gusty wind to the South Coast of New England, but it’s early for those details. 

Regardless, a wet Saturday should lead to a drier Sunday with the passage of the very same cold front that links up with Nicole’s moisture, delivering cool and dry air behind it for sun and clouds with the chance of a pop-up shower Sunday, then dry weather with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees early next week, at the end of our exclusive, First Alert 10-day forecast.

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