Control of the U.S. House of Representatives could switch parties after the midterm elections with Democrats expected to lose seats, as the party in power typically does. High inflation and concerns about the economy are eating into their support.
A recent CNBC All-American Economic Survey found that Americans had mostly negative views about the economy and gave Republicans the lead on critical economic and financial issues. Biden’s overall approval rating improved but remained at 45% in a poll released on Oct. 23.
As the country closes in on Election Day, here’s a look at what the House and Senate could do next year if Republicans take control in one or both chambers of Congress.
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Scenario: Republicans Take the House, Democrats Keep the Senate
Most pollsters say this is the most likely outcome of the election on Nov. 8. Democrats face strong headwinds to holding on to the House, from redistricting that favors Republicans to retirements in their ranks.
What would the GOP do with control of the House? With Democrats in the majority in the Senate, they would have little chance of passing legislation on their own but they could begin hearings and investigations and try to magnify any real or perceived failures of the Biden administration.
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"Realizing they are highly unlikely to get any GOP brand-boosting policies through the Senate and to the president’s desk, [Republicans] would feel strong incentives to focus on symbolic activities in the form of hearings or speeches or public events, messaging bills that aid to highlight the difference between the GOP and the Democrats with an eye towards picking up seats in 2024 and maybe winning the presidency," said Kevin R. Kosar, resident senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based think tank American Enterprise Institute.
So what have Republicans already indicated would be on such an agenda?
Probe Hunter Biden’s Businesses
Republican Rep. James Comer of Kentucky is a likely chair for the House Oversight Committee and at the top of his agenda would be the president’s son, Hunter Biden. Comer has said he would probe the younger Biden’s business dealings and look for evidence that he had compromised the president. Biden has said that he has no involvement in his son’s businesses and that his son’s previously disclosed addictions had not caused any conflicts for him.
Shut Down Jan. 6 Committee
The Jan. 6 committee’s mandate expires at the end of the current Congress and it would need to be re-convened to continue. The committee on Oct. 21 subpoenaed testimony and documents from Trump, but if Republicans win the House they could be expected to disband the committee and end the investigation into the attack on the Capitol. The House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy instead threatened telecommunications companies that complied with subpoenas of phone records. Alternately Republicans could keep the committee but redirect its focus, perhaps to try to blame Speaker Nancy Pelosi. They have have accused her of failing to call for help, a claim contradicted by video released by the Jan. 6 committee.
Try to Impeach Biden and others
Republicans have introduced resolutions calling for the impeachment of Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and others. But in October House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy cautioned against using impeachment as a political tool and said he did not believe any Democrats warranted such a step.
Investigate Dr. Anthony Fauci, Trump documents and Democratic policy
Here are other areas the GOP could eye: Dr. Anthony Fauci, Biden’s chief medical advisor, and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which some Republicans have blamed on a leak from a laboratory; the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan; the FBI retrieval of classified and other documents from Mar-a-Lago; the border with Mexico and the possible impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; and U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia.
Cut Medicare, Social Security
McCarthy has said that the GOP would use approval for raising the debt limit as a way to get spending cuts, including possibly ones to Medicare and Social Security. The debt ceiling will need to be lifted next year if the country is not to default on its debt.
Linda Fowler, a research professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth University, said there could be a possible fight over the budget in December.
“Republicans may just block it with the idea that they’ll come back and re-legislate everything in January if they win one or both chambers,” she said.
She also predicted a battle over the House speaker position, which McCarthy, of California, would be in line for. But immediately after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, leaked audio shows, McCarthy demanded an investigation. “We need to know why this happened, who did it and people need to be held accountable for it,” he said.
“Despite Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to keep faith with the Trump wing of the party, I think they are suspicious of him because of his remarks after Jan. 6, which were certainly appropriate,” Fowler said. “And even though he’s walked them back and tried to make his peace with Trump he may not have the votes for the speakership.
Scenario: Republicans Take the House and Senate
With control of both the House and Senate, Republicans would have more chance to impede Biden’s initiatives, an appealing move with a presidential election two years off. There would be pressure to introduce measures popular with the Republican base, even if Democrats employ the filibuster, the Senate rule that requires 60 votes to pass most legislation.
If the Republicans win both chambers they would continue symbolic actions, "but I think there are two other categories of things they would consider doing and one is pushing legislation that they would dare Biden to veto," Kosar said. "And the other is looking for possible win-wins that help the GOP brand."
Among the first could be allocating funds to finish the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, he said. The second could include working to move the supply chain away from China.
Challenge Biden on Immigration
If Republicans do want to highlight what they see as immigration policy failures, they could add funds to the Department of Homeland Security appropriation to finish the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, former President Donald Trump’s answer to migration into the United States. For the Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris has been leading the administration’s attempt to address the root causes of migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
“Democrats have to figure out an answer on immigration,” Kosar said. “Vice President Harris’ engagement with the issue has not impressed too many people.”
Propose National Abortion/Transgender Bans
A tricky proposition for many Republicans, who have long argued that abortion rights is an issue that should be left to the states, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina proposed national legislation to ban abortions after 15 weeks and proponents could force a debate on the issue.
Republicans could also introduce a resolution banning transgender women from participating in women's sports.
Tighten Voting Laws
Republicans might introduce legislation that would curb practices they claim lead to voter fraud, tightening rules on voter IDs, curbs on the number of days of early voting, restrictions on absentee voting and mandatory post-election audits.
Spending Cuts
Republicans might try to link inflation to Democratic spending, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, and the economy’s over dependence on supply lines out of China. Kosar said he would expect the GOP to propose cuts in government spending, to try to lessen dependence on goods from China and support more drilling for oil and gas in the United States.
Economists typically point to a number of factors for inflation and many agree that aggressive government spending during the coronavirus pandemic spurred a recovery but also demand that supply has not met.
