With a week to go until the election, the race between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican challenger Karoline Leavitt is a tight one.
"This is a tossup," said political analyst Scott Spradling. "And we're going neck-and-neck right to the final wire of the final week."
So what will be the deciding issues for voters? Polling suggests Leavitt, who is 25, would do well to stick to pocketbook issues like soaring inflation.
"She is attaching him to the Biden administration and essentially saying 'Chris Pappas is responsible for many of the problems that we're experiencing,'" Spradling said.
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Pappas, 42, would benefit by focusing on Leavitt's anti-abortion position and her connections with Donald Trump, including her false claims that he won the 2020 election.
"It's probably the most pro-choice swing state in the country," said Saint Anselm College professor Chris Galdieri.
He added that Leavitt's past claims about a stolen election should be in the focal point for Pappas.
"Her campaign, from the start, was based on being the Trumpiest possible voice in the Republican primary," Galdieri said. "She was not just flirting with election denialism, she was all in on that from the start."
Incumbents generally have an advantage, but New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District is known for switching parties every two to four years.
"People are willing to change their mind," Galdieri said. "It can go blue, it can go red, very much in keeping with national trends."
Decision 2022
And polls show those national trends give Republicans the momentum. RealClearPolitics just moved the race from "tossup" to "leans GOP." But other polls point to a narrow win for the Democrat.
"They're both very good on the campaign trail. They're both strong candidates. It'll probably be a late night," Spradling said.
Most political observers give Pappas a slight edge, but add that in a race this close, anything can happen on Election Day.
