Patriots

Patriots-Jets Preview: As Close to a Must-Win October Game as You Can Get for the Pats

Is it a "must-win" game? The Patriots won't be mathematically eliminated from anything this weekend. But for a Week 8 divisional showdown, it's about as close to a "must-win" as you can get.

Perry: Jones, Pats defense will need to carry the day to beat the upstart Jets originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Patriots have a lot at stake on Sunday in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

They're coming off an embarrassing (as Davon Godchaux described it) loss to the Bears. They're dealing with a confounding quarterback situation, where it appears as though Bill Belichick doesn't want to commit to Mac Jones for the foreseeable future. And now they're facing a division rival, on the road, with a smothering defense. If this thing starts to go sideways in Jersey, it could be a long second half of the year.

Think about where the Patriots stood back in March. Robert Kraft told reporters that it bothered him that the team hadn't won a postseason game in three years, and after making the playoffs the season prior, he expected them to contend. Immediately.

Patriots Talk: Is Mac Jones entering a make-or-break stretch with the Patriots? | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

Losing to the Jets on Sunday will have the Patriots about as far from contention as they've been since the end of the 2020 season, which was dubbed a cap-adjustment year by Belichick at the time. Not the way they want to be trending. Not the way ownership wants them to be trending.

Is it a "must-win" game? The Patriots won't be mathematically eliminated from anything this weekend. But for a Week 8 divisional showdown, it's about as close to a "must-win" as you can get.

Let's dig into the matchups ...

Matchup that will win the first half

Patriots defense vs. James Robinson

If the Patriots can stop the Jets on the ground, they won't have much recourse in terms of moving the ball and scoring points. The passing game under Zach Wilson has been abysmal and could be getting worse because of injury (more on that later).

Rookie running back sensation Breece Hall is out for the season, as is their best offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. Robinson -- who just arrived to his new team via trade with the Jaguars -- will have to keep the Jets in it. It's a lot to ask of a player who has been fine this season (2.69 yards after contact per attempt, 38th in the NFL) but not spectacular.

Curran: If the Patriots are to be taken seriously in 2022, it starts Sunday

Michael Carter could be the go-to guy this week as Robinson gets his feet wet in a new offense, but using both would probably prevent either one from getting gassed when so much is going to be heaped on their shoulders.

Belichick's club has had a tough time stopping opposing rushing attacks when they can throw a mobile quarterback into the mix -- as was the case against the Bears and Ravens -- but that's not Wilson's game. The Patriots should be able to limit Robinson's production and keep this thing close headed into halftime.

Matchup that will surprise you

Carl Lawson vs. Trent Brown

There will be a lot made of the matchup on the interior of the defensive line for the Jets against a banged-up Patriots offensive line (more on that later). But this is a matchup that people should have their eyes on as well, even if Lawson isn't exactly a household name. He works almost exclusively off the offensive left, which will square him up with Brown consistently on Sunday.

Lawson has quietly been a monster. He's tied with Matt Judon -- New England's best defender -- for second in the NFL with 15 quarterback hits, which trails only Niners star edge rusher Nick Bosa. No edge rusher in the league has more hits off the offensive left than Lawson.

The Patriots usually depend on Brown being able to handle his business in one-on-one situations. But after a rough outing on Monday night that included four penalties, Brown is going to have to raise his game to be able to keep Mac Jones clean.

Matchup that will bring you joy

Zach Wilson vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick

For the second straight season, this is a matchup that should have the defensive brain trust for the Patriots licking their chops. Will Wilson give them four interceptions the way he did in his first matchup against Mayo and the Belichicks last year? Probably not. He only has two picks in four games this year, both of them coming against the Steelers back on Oct. 2.

But make no mistake, he's been bad. He's completing just 57.4 percent of his passes for a meager 6.9 yards per attempt. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks, and the Jets' third-down conversion percentage is fourth-worst in the NFL (32.7). Of 38 qualifying quarterbacks, no one in the NFL has a worse adjusted completion percentage when facing pressure than Wilson (31.6), and only Jones (8.7) has a worse rating than Wilson (12.7) in those situations, per Pro Football Focus.

If the Patriots can find ways to penetrate Jets protection plans -- particularly without Vera-Tucker -- then it should be a frustrating day for Wilson. Without Hall and top wideout Corey Davis (ruled out with a knee injury), Wilson should struggle through a performance than could make your weekend if you're a Patriots fan.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Quinnen Williams vs. James Ferentz

This could easily drop down one category and under the "Matchup That Will Determine Outcome" header. Williams has been a beast in 2022. He's the fifth-highest graded interior defensive linemen in football, per PFF, and he has more pressures (29) than anyone who plays along the interior -- including LA's Aaron Donald and Kansas City's Chris Jones.

With David Andrews out after suffering a concussion against Chicago, it'll fall to Ferentz to help slow down Williams' torrid pace as a pass-rusher. He'll have help, no doubt, but you can only double-team so many players. This Jets front is chock full of talent across the board. John Franklin-Myers is an underrated disrupter who can play a variety of techniques along the line. Sheldon Rankins has 11 pressures himself, which ties him with Christian Barmore. Lawson poses his own problems, too.

Put it all together and not only will Ferentz be challenged physically, but getting down the communication necessary to be able to handle all that juice at the line of scrimmage could be a challenge in and of itself. Ferentz is highly intelligent. This is why they've kept him around, to handle situations like this one. But it won't be easy.

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Mac Jones vs. Sauce Gardner

The Jets have arguably the best cornerback tandem in the NFL this year. In one offseason, they've completely revamped the position. They added Sauce Gardner with the fourth overall pick, and he's quickly established himself as the No. 4 graded corner in the NFL, per PFF. His teammate DJ Reed, signed via free-agency, ranks 13th in the same category.

Both corners are allowing a quarterback rating of less than 60.0 this year when targeted. Because the Jets have been so effective against the run -- they're third in the league, allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt -- this game is going to be put in Jones' hands at some point. Probably on third down. If he can make tight-window throws against good coverage, the Patriots should have enough offensive firepower to win. If he can't, this may become a slog for the Patriots offense, and perhaps an unexpected play defensively or in the kicking game ends up being necessary for them to win it.

Will Jones bounce back after a hard Monday night? Can he be the kind of quarterback who makes game-changing throws -- which he's shown the potential to do at times in his early career and as recently as Week 3 -- to beat a talented defense? How he performs on Sunday could go a long way in altering the narrative that's been swirling around him in Year 2.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Jets 10

Copyright RSN
Contact Us