Perry: Containing Kyler Murray and other keys to a Patriots victory originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Patriots are already facing an uphill climb if they want to make the postseason. But now that they're back to .500 with only five games remaining in their season, if they lose on Monday night against the Cardinals, their playoff pipe dream just might be dead.
Yup. It's another must-win in what's felt like a season full of 'em.
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Just play it out. If the Patriots aren't able to get it done in Glendale against a 4-8 team, they'd be looking ahead to a meeting with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels when former Bill Belichick assistants have shown a tendency to do well against their old boss. Then the schedule is loaded up with some of the most efficient offenses in the league: Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo, in that order.
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Keeping pace with those last three is hard to imagine at this point, given where the Patriots offense ranks in critical situations (25th in third down offense, last in red-zone offense) and in some advanced categories (27th in expected points added per play).
That means if the Patriots want to get to nine wins and even have a shot at thinking about getting an extra game in January, they have to win what is an eminently winnable game in Arizona.
If they don't, not only could their playoff hopes be shot, but they also could be looking at the further erosion of buy-in within a locker room that has struggled to exhibit it consistently going all the way back to the summer.
Let's get to the matchups that will decide this one...
Matchup that will decide the first half
Kyler Murray's legs vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick
The Patriots did well to limit Josh Allen's running ability in last week's matchup, holding the Bills quarterback to 20 yards rushing on eight carries and forcing a fumble on Allen when he was flushed from the pocket. But Allen's legs also helped him convert a third-and-long situation to start the game when he scrambled to throw. He did the same again later in the game and found Gabe Davis for a laugh-out-loud-in-disbelief scramble-drill touchdown.
The Patriots will have to be on their Ps and Qs with an athletic passer again this week. Kyler Murray has played just nine games this season, but he's seventh among quarterbacks in scrambles with 24 on the year. He's sixth in the NFL in scramble yards, per Pro Football Focus, with 204. He's also sixth among quarterbacks in terms of his designed-run yardage, with 202.
The nice thing for the Patriots is that Murray isn't close to the threat Allen was as a runner (Allen has 430 scramble yards alone) or a passer.
As a passer, Murray is at the bottom of the NFL. He's 35th out of 38 qualifiers in terms of yards per attempt (6.1). He's 23rd in passer rating, just one tenth of a point ahead of Mac Jones. And his work outside the pocket this season hasn't been good. He's 30th out of 33 qualifiers in completion percentage when outside the pocket, per Sports Info Solutions. He's 28th in yards per attempt in those situations and 30th in quarterback rating.
If Murray is beating the Patriots from outside the pocket -- either as a runner or a passer -- on Monday night, that could be enough to do in Belichick's club before the first 30 minutes are through.
They'll have to have an answer for Murray's athleticism early. If they can contain him, they'll have a chance to win in the second half. Book it.
Matchup that will surprise you
Matt Patricia approach vs. Vance Joseph
There's just no way the Patriots don't try to push the ball down the field in Week 13. Especially now that they've been called out by Vance Joseph as being so conservative that it's clear they're being run by a "defensive guy."
The only issue is that the Patriots may not have all the pieces they need to push the ball deep. Left tackle Trent Brown is dealing with an illness that kept him out of Thursday's practice, though he did return for Friday's work and hasn't been ruled out for Monday. Still, even if Brown plays, the right tackle spot may be left to Conor McDermott with Isaiah Wynn (foot) and Marcus Cannon (injured reserve) not practicing.
There are, however, ways to attempt passes deeper down the field -- even with a banged-up line. The Vikings did exactly that when they were without their left tackle on Thanksgiving. They targeted many of their throws short, but they still opened it up occasionally. Same goes for Buffalo, which was without its left tackle last week.
Fresh off a loss that was punctuated by players making it very clear they wished they could've been more aggressive, it would make sense for the coaching staff to try to try to earn their buy-in by making an attempt in that regard.
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If ever there was a good time to try to open it up, this would be it. The Cardinals pass defense is second-to-last in the NFL in passer rating allowed (102.2).
Whether or not it's a successful approach remains to be seen, but prepare to be stunned when the Patriots launch it down the field more than they have of late. They have to after hearing what Joseph had to say this week.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Patriots run defense vs. Cardinals non-Murray running game
While Kyler Murray presents challenges in the running game, others don't. Generally speaking. According to SIS, only the Chargers and Buccaneers have fewer rushing yards per attempt this season from non-quarterbacks (3.8). Arizona is seventh in the NFL in terms of its "stuff rate," which is defined by SIS as runs that go for zero yards or fewer.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have quietly been one of the best run defenses in the league. They were exploited against Chicago's Justin Fields and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson but then flooded the field with defensive backs against Josh Allen, discouraged him from battering them similarly, and ended up holding the Bills to 3.6 yards per carry.
If the Patriots can execute a plan like that one, keeping Murray bottled up on the ground, odds are the rest of the Cardinals running game will wither. The Patriots are eighth in the league in expected points added per rush attempt this year, per The Athletic.
While the Arizona running game may be forced to ram its head into a wall, that's not where the Patriots should be most concerned on that side of the ball...
Matchup that will take years off your life
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Patriots secondary
...This could be a problem. Jalen Mills missed both Thursday and Friday's practices injured, meaning the Patriots could be without their biggest outside-the-numbers cover man. Not ideal when going against a contested-catch maven who measures in at 6-foot-1, 212 pounds like DeAndre Hopkins.
If the Patriots opt to play man-to-man defense -- they remain among the most man-heavy units in the league -- then the responsibility of covering Hopkins could fall to Jonathan Jones. Belichick trusts Jones as much as anyone in the corners room at One Patriot Place. "Jon does everything right all the time," Belichick said Friday.
But at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, checking Hopkins is a physical mismatch. The Patriots could try to double Hopkins, but that would take one coverage player away from being able to help on speedster Marquise Brown deep down the field. And if the Patriots want to spy Murray with a free defender... There are only so many bodies available at the second and third levels.
Against No. 1 receivers the last two weeks, the Patriots have struggled. They allowed Justin Jefferson to have nine catches on 11 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving. A week later, they allowed Stefon Diggs seven catches on nine targets for 92 yards and a score. That's a combined quarterback rating allowed figure of 148.1.
If that trend continues against Hopkins, it'll be a long night on primetime for the Patriots secondary.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots red-zone offense vs. Cardinals red-zone defense
This matchup might be best described as The Stoppable Force versus The Movable Object. Whichever unit reverses its 2022 trend and exhibits some level of competency could end up winning the game on Monday night.
The Patriots are tied for last in the NFL inside the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 37.5 percent of their trips inside the 20. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are the league's worst red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 68.9 percent of their red-zone trips.
Can the Patriots get Hunter Henry going against a defense that's 25th in the league in limiting tight ends (8.5 yards per pass attempt)? Can they force-feed Rhamondre Stevenson when things get tight against a rush defense that ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.6)? Or might Stevenson be able to wiggle free for a touchdown as a pass-catcher against a defense that's 29th in yards per attempt (6.9) and quarterback rating allowed (113.6) to running backs this season?
If the Patriots are going to figure out their red-zone woes at any point in 2022, this is their opportunity. It may only take a conversion or two to keep their playoff hopes alive.
