New England Patriots

Does spending big in NFL free agency lead to playoff success?

Teams that spend the most money in free agency haven't enjoyed much success lately.

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The New England Patriots entered the 2025 offseason with arguably the NFL's worst roster. There's an alarming lack of high-end talent in Foxboro. Outside of quarterback Drake Maye and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, there's not a ton for fans to be excited about going forward.

The good news for the Patriots is that they have nearly $130 million in salary cap space -- by far the most of any team -- which allows them to be major participants in free agency later this month.

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The Patriots have a ton of roster weaknesses to address, with left tackle, wide receiver and edge rusher leading the list. Many of these positions likely will be bolstered in free agency.

That said, teams that break out the checkbook and spend massive amounts of money in free agency rarely have much success, especially long term. Building a long-term winning roster in free agency is rarely a good idea. Building through the draft and making shrewd trades is often the best path for perennial success.

Look no further than the chart below. It looks at all the largest spenders in NFL free agency for each of the last seven offseasons, and is based on free agent spending only (no extensions included). The numbers are from Spotrac.

Four of these seven teams missed the playoffs after spending big, and only the 2022 Bills won a playoff game.

The Bears spent huge in 2018 and got just two playoff appearances (2018 and 2020) and zero playoff wins out of it. The Jets spent a ton of money in 2019, but it wasn't enough to snap their league-leading postseason appearance drought. The Dolphins have been decent the last couple years, but still haven't won a playoff game since 2000.

The Patriots' huge 2021 spending spree helped them reach the playoffs that season, but they haven't been back since and finished 4-13 each of the last two seasons. If you look at the Patriots' five most expensive signings from that 2021 offseason, only Hunter Henry remains.

Last season, the Broncos finally made their first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015, but that was largely because of rookie quarterback Bo Nix playing so well, and not due to the team's free agent spending. The Panthers invested tons of free agent money into their offensive and defensive lines last offseason, and it only resulted in a 5-12 record.

The Bills are the only team in this group that has been consistently good. Buffalo has won five consecutive AFC East titles. But the reason why the Bills are good is because they've drafted very well, most notably selecting MVP quarterback Josh Allen at No. 7 overall in 2018.

Four of these seven teams actually have a top 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft next month. So, despite all that spending, they were still bad enough to be among the 10-worst teams this past season.

The point of this article isn't to say the Patriots shouldn't spend a lot of money in free agency. They absolutely should. Frankly, they don't have a choice. They have so many roster weaknesses. They need to spend to fix all of these issues.

But if the Patriots are going to build a roster that can win for the long haul, it has to be done in the draft. And outside of Maye and Gonzalez, the Patriots haven't hit on many of their recent first-, second-, third- and fourth-round picks. That's why the Patriots have missed the playoffs three straight seasons. And unless the drafting improves, the on-field product won't get much better in 2025.

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