Brief Return of Pleasant Weather Expected Friday, Then a Soggy Weekend

It’s incredible that the same, slow-moving disturbance responsible for driving weekend rain through New England continues to only slowly trudge east now on Wednesday, not set to move over and east of New England until Thursday.

We’ve seen the result: lots of moisture in the atmosphere forming overnight clouds and pockets of fog each night that slowly break apart during the day before scattered showers develop – our Wednesday will stick to the script.

The biggest deviation has been the morning clouds being more stubborn from the New Hampshire Seacoast through eastern Massachusetts, but by afternoon, all except Cape Cod will find a blend of sun and clouds. With an onshore, easterly wind, temperatures will be hard pressed to break more than a degree or two above 50 degrees at the coast, but inland should rise well into the 50s once again, and as the upper level disturbance approaches New England from the west, a few showers will develop from west to east late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with some embedded downpours or even a rumble of thunder.

As these move inside of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts, they’ll tend to fizzle Wednesday evening, but a few showers will continue to wander across New England from west to east overnight Wednesday night with a few pockets of fog redeveloping. By Thursday, the heart of the upper level energy will finally be over New England, and the result will be more numerous showers over the course of the day, though they will be scattered. Again, an embedded downpour or rumble of thunder will be possible, particularly during the middle afternoon, but by evening, any showers will be fizzling and drier air will arrive for Thursday night and a splendid day Friday.

The wind will continue to blow off the ocean Friday, meaning even with sunshine for the first half of the day ahead of increasing afternoon clouds, temperatures won’t exceed the 50s at the coast, but inland should rise into the 60s for what will be the best day of the week. The return of pleasant weather won’t last long – another intense, slow-moving jet stream level disturbance will take a similar path to its predecessor this weekend, with the upper level energy settling into the Great Lakes and pumping a feed of moisture northward, ahead of it, into New England. 

The result will be clouds Saturday morning and midday, then rain showers arriving during the afternoon and ramping up to a steadier rain Saturday evening and night. At this point, it looks like the showers will linger through Sunday, even though they may fall at greatly varying intensity.

Then, more rain is expected for at least a part of Monday, particularly in the morning. The bottom line is a nearly repeating weather pattern sets up heading into next week, with the slow-moving jet stream level disturbance only creeping eastward from the Great Lakes over several days, keeping the chance of scattered showers in the forecast each day, particularly during the afternoons, with temperatures in the 50s for many, though some days exceeding 60 inland. By the very end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, we start to emerge out of the influence of that large disturbance and should see improving weather return for next Friday.