Flash flood warnings were in effect Monday evening in parts of New Hampshire and Vermont, and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued earlier in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Connecticut.
Most of the warnings have since expired. One flash flood warning in Cheshire County, New Hampshire, was extended until 1:15 a.m. Tuesday.
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Humid air continues its hold on New England and there’s not much change to how the air will feel in the days ahead, though each day will be a little different when it comes to timing, intensity and placement of showers and thunder that develop in that moist air.
It stands to figure that, for the most part, when it rains it pours given the sheer amount of moisture available in the air. As a result, spots of flash flooding result when too much water comes down all at once, overwhelming runoff to cause areas of flooding and occasionally local road washouts. Although most of New England has an elevated chance of showers and thunder from late morning onward, in particular, most the action by evening will be centered across the deep interior – particularly the western half of New Hampshire into eastern Vermont – where localized flash flooding may occur in isolated spots that receive two to four inches of rain with locally higher amounts.
As it is, Monday morning started with flash flood warnings for parts of the White Mountains, northern Mount Washington Valley and Franklin County, Maine. For all of us, we’ll want to stay attentive to both the threat from flooding in low-lying areas and use caution for road-washouts in flooding areas, but also remain on guard for stronger storms in general: with so many outdoor plans, keep in mind the phrase “When thunder roars, go indoors!” and seek shelter if thunder can be heard, as that means lightning strikes are nearby.
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Although most of New England will see showers taper Monday evening into night – perhaps still ongoing in the susceptible areas mentioned above – a new round of rain and thunder arrives predawn Tuesday and lasts into the morning commute Tuesday, slowing travel by putting big puddles on the roadways. It’s not impossible if downpours linger long enough over Providence or New Bedford that spots of flash flooding may occur in or near these cities Tuesday morning, but more likely is widespread ponding of water on eastern New England roadways until the rain tapers by breaking apart later Tuesday morning, leaving only scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday appear to be a bit more straight-forward: humid air, highs near 80 and scattered showers and thunder mostly focused in the afternoon to early evening hours.
Saturday brings a brief break from the daily parade of atmospheric disturbances and while showers and thunder won’t be nearly so active by the way it looks right now, one or two may still pop up. Sunday, a new energetic disturbance aloft drops into the persistent trough – or dip – in the jet stream winds over New England.
These jet stream, storm steering winds high in the sky steer disturbances, and as long as a trough remains in the Northeast, we remain vulnerable to daily showers or thunder. While Sunday and Monday are likely to bring a resurgence in this pattern, our First Alert Team remains optimistic this pattern will relax just barely in time for the Independence Day holiday, so we continue to indicate a markedly lower chance of thunder for July 4th and 5th at this time in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
