New England has entered another stretch of exceptionally quiet weather that will last several days, into the upcoming weekend. Showers, downpours and thunderstorms Tuesday evening marked a cold front marching from west to east – the leading edge to less humid air that has delivered a blue sky with a few fair weather clouds and mild afternoon temperatures rising through the 70s to near 80 on a westerly breeze gusting at time to 30 mph.
A second cold front will cross from northwest to southeast Wednesday night, with variable clouds and another installment of even drier, cooler air that will drop temperatures by Thursday morning to the 40s north and central, 50s south, and hold daytime highs Thursday in the 60s for most communities with a fall feeling. Expect 50s at the warmest time of day in northern New England.
This sets New England up for a chilly night Thursday night with lows expected to dip into the 30s for deepest valleys of the North Country, with pockets of frost a possibility, while the rest of New England sees overnight lows in the 40s for the coolest night so far in this young fall season.
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A cool start Friday will be offset by a light wind and sunshine Friday afternoon, though even a decent rebound won’t put most communities beyond 70-75 degrees for an afternoon high temperature, though dry weather extends through Saturday as cirrus clouds – high altitude clouds indicative of potential change in the weather – stream in aloft. The indication of change is a sign of warmer air attempting a return to New England from the south and west, and that trend toward warming aloft will continue Sunday, while cool air won’t want to entirely let go in the lower altitudes.
This setup often favors increasing clouds and the potential for showers, which is exactly our forecast for Sunday. At issue is just how much rain will fall Sunday, and what time it begins – with so many autumn outdoor plans, we know how much attention is on each weekend day and will continue to evaluate this in the coming days, but right now our in-house Forecast System has raised the chance of rain showers to 50% - a steady increase each day for the last three days of forecasts – and we think that’s a good read on the setup at this time.
Given the strengthening clash of air overhead as the day wears on, the best chance of those showers developing would be in the second half of the day. The same battle of cool and mild air – a "front" in the terms of meteorology – will remain parked over New England or nearby on Monday and Tuesday, keeping the chance of showers elevated.
Thereafter, while there are some signals that same front may stall over or near us much of the week, which would introduce showers on even more days, right now we remain optimistic there would be enough movement of the front to nudge showers out of New England for the middle and end of next week.