Last week, New England benefitted from being stalled under fair weather between a slow-moving storm to our east and another to our west. This week we flip the script.
The weather pattern remains slow-moving but we’re close enough to a storm over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and another out to sea south of Nova Scotia. Yes, about the same as last week, but colder with more clouds this week.
Monday morning showers stretched from southern Vermont to southeast Massachusetts, with other clusters of showers over southwest New England. Most of the morning showers melted away in favor of cloud cover and a cool breeze Monday midday and afternoon.
The persistent northeast wind gusting past 30 mph off the 40-45-degree ocean water will make it hard for afternoon air temperatures to exceed 50 degrees in most eastern New England communities. Western and northern New England highs will be in the 50s.
A northerly and northeast wind seems unlikely to break in the days ahead. This means that, while the sun will break out at times when the wind becomes more northerly and a little less off the ocean, the majority of the week will be cloudy.
With the sprawling storm center slowly drifting across the eastern U.S. to our west and not directly overhead, that really limits how much rain is expected to fall. Total rain amounts over the entire week through Thursday evening are expected to be less than 1/10 of an inch! So, outdoor plans look decent on most days this week, as long as clouds and cool air are part of the expectation.
The bigger change is expected Thursday night through Friday, when the energy driving the storm system to our west finally draws close enough to swing a storm center nearby. It delivers steady and soaking rain on Friday, with enough cool air that some snow may mix in for interior, higher-terrain communities!
For most of us, if this soaking rain comes together it would be welcome news to a depleted New England water table that’s been pushed all the way into drought for some of Vermont and western New Hampshire. The highest rainfall totals of around an inch, though, would likely fall in the southern half of New England, where abnormally dry conditions fall short of drought classification.
Saturday likely brings dry conditions but our First Alert Team isn’t excited about significantly warmer air. Then a chance of showers builds again by later Sunday as afternoon high temperatures finally return above 55 degrees.
The good news, looking at our exclusive 10-day forecast, is that next week doesn’t look as cool or as cloudy. But with a jet stream “trough" over the Northeast U.S., or dip in the storm steering jet stream winds aloft, we’re likely to find multiple rounds of clouds and showers sliding through, particularly during the first half of the week.