There was a time when a chance of scattered showers on a weekend afternoon would concern us as New Englanders with outdoor plans. While our job as meteorologists is to let folks know that chance exists, we’re well aware that most of New England is just fine with a few showers on a weekend afternoon if they’re scattered, confined to afternoon, it’s mild and there’s some sun.
Luckily, all of those boxes are checked this weekend. In short, the pattern of the last couple of days will continue through the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday of next week: generally mild and dry weather, but a daily chance of showers as disturbances aloft pass through the New England sky, riding the jet stream winds high in the sky that are currently blowing from Canada across New England.
Friday’s start of sunshine and dry air combined for a rapid climb in temperatures to the 70s, though a light prevailing wind means a sea breeze will develop Friday afternoon, cooling the coasts late in the day while the interior spends the afternoon in the middle 70s.
One disturbance aloft makes its pass over New England Friday afternoon, resulting in rapidly growing and expanding clouds, with a few of the clouds growing heavy enough for isolated sprinkles or showers late in the day into the early evening. The passage of the disturbance and the cooling of air after sundown will lead to a gradually clearing overnight sky.
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Expect a repeat performance Saturday – perhaps some patchy fog near the coast in the early going, but otherwise sun to building clouds with a low chance of isolated showers or sprinkles in the afternoon, with a bit more in the way of showers across Northern New England, particularly central and northern Maine and the White Mountains of New Hampshire; and an afternoon sea breeze along the coast.
Six Flags New England reopens in Agawam, Massachusetts, Saturday and it should be an incredible 76 degrees with just a 25% chance of an afternoon shower.
Sunday certainly won’t turn humid, but the amount of moisture in the air will be increasing, making for an increased chance of showers and even the possibility of scattered thunder Sunday afternoon into evening after reaching high temperatures in the 70s for most, with an early morning shower possible (but the better chance of showers is later in the day).
The same pattern of mild air, variable clouds and an increased chance of showers will continue through Monday and Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front nears New England, finally making its pass through the region late Tuesday.
Behind the passing cold front, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are likely to bring drier air with pleasant temperatures, before the chance of showers may climb again Friday night into next weekend with increasingly moist air returning; but there are no expectation of soggy conditions so much as scattered showers, at least at this early junction.