A large area of high pressure – fair weather – is flexing its muscle across the northeast, carving out dry and chilly autumn air for the entire quadrant of the country and limiting the chance of showers for most.
The exception may be across northern New England, where isolated showers are possible from blossoming clouds associated with an upper level disturbance Wednesday afternoon. Southern New England should see fair weather clouds mixing with the sun in the latter part of Wednesday, but showers are unlikely.
A clearing sky Wednesday night makes way for widespread frost, even perhaps in the valleys of the middle and upper portions of Cape Cod, so those with potted plants will want to consider covering them up or taking them in.
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Thursday and Friday will be the coolest of the recent stretch and are also the coolest of the 10-day forecast ahead, with high temperatures struggling to get beyond 50 degrees for most New England communities and morning temperatures subfreezing for many inland towns.
With such cool air Friday and an offshore storm inducing a northerly wind through a deep layer of the atmosphere, some ocean-effect rain showers are possible Friday on the outer Cape, caused by the chilly air flowing across the relatively warm waters of the Atlantic, where ocean temperatures just north of the Cape are in the middle 50s.
Although the dry weather will last into the upcoming weekend, a much larger and stronger offshore storm will develop south of New England on Sunday, spreading increasing clouds across the region from south to north.
Although showers should stay south of New England Sunday night into Monday, we are maintaining a chance of showers for that time period in our First Alert forecast, owing to an energetic disturbance aloft that may succeed in pulling enough moisture northward for some showers overnight Sunday night and Monday morning.
Regardless of whether those showers reach this far north or not, we’re expected to resume a cool and dry pattern for much of next week. Daytime high temperatures will gradually ease back toward seasonal normals and actually should nudge above normal by the end of next week, when another, more bona fide chance of showers enters the forecast.