Tuesday is the second and final of the paired dry, breezy days favoring elevated brush fire danger and very high tree pollen count. For the second day in a row, a “Red Flag Warning” has been hoisted in part of New England by the U.S. government. Today it is focused on the entire Granite State of New Hampshire and most of southern Maine.
Keep in mind, a Red Flag Warning means dry air with breezy weather conditions favor explosive growth of any brush fires that develop on our dry ground, most often started by cigarette butts and embers from brush burning here in the northeast.
After thinning clouds and increasing sun bumps cool Tuesday morning temperatures to nearly 70 degrees by afternoon, clouds increase Tuesday night with showers in sight to at least curb both the brush fire danger and pollen count a bit in the days ahead.
The first showers are expected to be scattered, expanding from northwest to southeast before dawn Wednesday as milder and somewhat more humid air starts moving into New England. Then showers should break entirely for several hours centered around the middle of the day.
By evening, new showers and embedded thunderstorms will expand east out of upstate New York and sweep across New England. While the greatest chance for strong or severe thunderstorms will remain focused in central New York to the southern tier, some strong storms may wander east through the Capital District and into New England.
On Thursday and Friday, a storm center will strengthen over the Great Lakes then swing east across New England. This will bring periodic showers, rain and thunder – most likely focused primarily in the second half of Thursday and first half of Friday. The exact timing is still unclear enough, though, that our team is advising both days be viewed as showery until we gain more clarity.
Either way, New England will sit right on the tight boundary between cool and mild air. Such boundaries are a classic breeding ground and pathway for storms to follow, so we should see some rather dramatic differences in temperature across the region; from 70s possible in southwestern communities like Connecticut, to highs only in the 40s in Maine or Northern New Hampshire.
The storm clears New England for the weekend, leaving a fair sky Saturday with just a slight chance of a shower, perhaps sun fading behind some building clouds Sunday, with again only a slight chance of a shower. Next week likely will bring renewed chances for showers, but a generally mild pattern is expected to continue.