Winter weather is here to stay all this week as one system exits and another one takes aim at us for Thursday.
The mix of precipitation we had all day Monday tapers from northwest to southeast, finishing in some areas with wet snowflakes as colder air moves in. The big issue will be icy spots tonight as temperatures fall to below freezing where we had earlier rain.
Southern New England lows will be around 30 degrees. Everywhere else and north will be in the 20s to teens under a clear sky.
If you are bundled up tight, it will be a great night to see the Geminid Meteor Shower, which peaked last night but we can continue to see a good show the next several nights on a clear sky.
An icy start to Tuesday will bring us some sun by afternoon and highs in the 30s.
Wednesday is another break in the wintry weather, but highs will only be in the 20s as colder air takes over. This sets us up for a mostly snow event, with a fluffy consistency thanks to temperatures in the 20s.
Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning our nor'easter heads offshore from the mid Atlantic and strengthens as it heads east. Even though we have the threats of snow, wind and coastal flooding, the snow is going to be the biggest impact on this storm.
Heavy snowfall is likely to reach a 1-2 inch snowfall rate per hour Thursday morning into the afternoon. And with the fluffy consistency, we will get several inches of plowable snow.
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The question remains where the zone of 6 inches or higher will be. In fact, there is about a 40-50% chance for 8 inches or more of snow to fall right around the Massachusetts Turnpike. This storm will also have a sharp cutoff north from nothing to a few inches of snow. Cape Cod is looking more like a couple inches of snow due to way more mixing.
Gusty winds from the northeast will be between 30 and 50 mph, leading to some damage and outage potential. The coastal flooding is a concern with high astronomical tides just after a new moon. The wave heights will build to 12-18 feet offshore. We are watching for the Thursday noon high tide flooding with minor inundation on coastal roads and some pockets of moderate flooding on Nantucket.
After this storm heads out, our temperatures remain cold for Friday, but we dry off for cleanup. The snowpack should linger into Christmas week, giving a good chunk of New England a shot at a white Christmas.