There's an old adage in weather forecasting, called 'the trend is your friend.' We use this tool when it's a challenging forecast, for example, if it has not rained in a long time and there's a chance of rain, it's probably not gonna rain.
We should have used that adage yesterday when we forecast the rain near the south coast today.
Instead, the boundary generating range south of New England has slipped a little further than expected. We still have a good deal of clouds with a few raindrops this afternoon, but the heavy rain has missed. There have been severe storms and flash flood warnings off to the south from Pennsylvania to the mid-Atlantic.
Instead, we have high pressure to the north in a week front to the south, generating wind from the northeast. It is a refreshing cooler air mass with lower humidity. But the whole boundary is going to lift back to the north with increasing warmth and humidity over the weekend.
For the balance of today, it will be mostly cloudy south with a shower possible. To the north, most are in the 70s to low 80s with humidity creeping back up.
Tonight there may be a few scattered showers or thunderstorms, but most of us stay dry with low temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Some low clouds and fog may roll in from the east over Cape Cod and the Islands into Rhode Island and Connecticut by morning.
We have high pressure to the north in a week front to the south, generating wind from the northeast. It is a refreshing cooler air mass with lower humidity. But the whole boundary is going to lift back to the north with increasing warmth and humidity over the weekend.
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The weekend forecast is also somewhat challenging with a boundary right over New England. We will have afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible. Mostly away from the beaches, we will see early fog and low clouds that should give way to a brighter sky each afternoon.
High temperatures are expected for Saturday, mostly in the 70s to lower 80s, with the breeze continuing in from the east and the southeast.
But the wind comes around from the southwest on Sunday, and the warmth and humidity come back in with temperatures in the 80s to 90 degrees.
After that, it looks like we're in the heat for a few days before another round of thunderstorms come in probably later Tuesday and Wednesday.
It may take a couple of days for the heat to break, as has been the case for the last several weeks. So it looks like another heatwave here in our First Alert 10-day forecast.