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Rain to the South, Snow Up North This Afternoon

Cold air is retreating quickly in response to a strengthening southeast breeze

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For many New Englanders, this is exactly the type of winter storm you ask our First Alert Weather Team for: snow north and rain south – not to mention, a dry morning commute, to boot.

As the next storm system moves east, split between one area of low pressure in southern Quebec and another directly over southern New England, the cold air is retreating quickly in response to a strengthening southeast breeze that will mean mostly raindrops in southern New England as precipitation arrives late Tuesday morning and lasts through the evening. 

In northern New England, cold air is better established, and another 3-6 inches of snow are expected to only further improve ski and snowmobile conditions, which have improved dramatically over the last couple of weeks. 

Of course, Vermont and New Hampshire students are still in school, so dismissals will be a bit dicey with snow falling for particularly central and northern parts of both states, but farther south, wet roads are expected for the afternoon and evening drive.

Showers exit tonight and we’ll be on guard for at least a couple pockets of black ice to develop toward dawn in southern New Hampshire and Maine, as well as northern Massachusetts.

Any black ice would melt fairly quickly Wednesday morning with fair skies expected and temperatures rising into the 40s to the south and the 30s up north, though a busy westerly wind will drive wind chill values some ten degrees colder, not only making for a brisk day, but also raising the possibility of summit chairlift holds in the mountains where skiers will be eager to take advantage of the fresh snow. 

No worries – Thursday’s wind will be quieter as cold and dry air takes hold with highs only in the teens and 20s under a fair sky, but that dry air holds on through the weekend as the cold nature of the air slowly relaxes Friday and nearly is extinguished by Saturday and Sunday. 

Next week our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast focuses on a return to a busy, fast jet stream pattern aloft – steering multiple disturbances our way.  This both raises the potential for unsettled weather next week, but also puts New England on the edge of northern cold and southern warmth, so there’s a distinct possibility we see more events featuring mild showers south and snow showers north.

That will depend on storm track and timing with such a big temperature difference from north to south, and placement of that difference dependent upon storm track.

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