Over the last two nights, it’s been ‘sneak attack’ snow. Weak weather systems zipping by in the dark of night to produce a dusting or an inch of snow before escaping offshore and allowing the sun to return.
Last night’s snow was no exception, but the clearing behind won’t be as abrupt. Instead, we’ll stew in the clouds for a good part of the day before the sun manages to get a fingerhold in the afternoon. Most importantly, temperatures will get a bounce into the low and mid-40s ahead of another blast of very cold air tomorrow.
Essentially, this arctic air is setting the table for the weekend storm. What? You haven’t heard of the weekend nor’easter that’s brewing? The bombogenesis expected off the Eastern Seaboard? Well, lend a little bandwidth and let me give you the latest.
We’re almost certain to get a storm to form. And it could be very deep and strong. That’s the easier (or so it seems now) part of the equation. The math gets a little more complex on how much snow we may see, how bad the coastal flooding may be and where the track could end up.
Closer to the coast and into the Gulf of Maine, and we’re in the sweet spot (typically west/northwest of the track) for snow. It’s a promise of a foot or more with that track. Farther offshore, and the sweet spot shifts to southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape….or even over the fish if the storm heads more toward Nova Scotia.
This far out, the models will flip & flop like a striper on a boat deck. One run will show it offshore; next near shore. It’s more drama than a middle school dance, and it’s no way to forecast.
To steady the ship, we focus on the consensus of the models’ output: 52 or so members smoothed like buttercream frosting showing storm track, conservative snowfall amounts, and generalized information. If all 52 members start to edge the storm farther away, we are on more solid footing, and it’s a trend to take note of.
So, where do we stand now? They’re all hugging the coast, keeping us in the sweet spot. Not just those 52 members, but 3 different models each with about 52 members. That’s approximately 156 individual members telling you to get ready.
And so we will. Lots of updates in the days ahead. Stay on top of it with us.