July forecast

Warmer-Than-Normal Temperatures Expected for July

Those who love midsummer heat should be happy with what 2020 delivers!

The first weekday of the month almost always means the monthly forecast and today's start of July was no exception!

Our First Alert June monthly forecast predicted a drier than normal month that would push us close to drought in New England.

That held through nearly all of June, and as we teetered on drought, the rains came. For most, the waning days of June did not bring enough rain to make up for the deficit (though some obvious exceptions are those few communities that saw flash flooding and heaviest downpours) but certainly provided much-needed water for agriculture and our water tables.

A similar precipitation pattern seems likely for July, a large dome of high pressure and a corresponding "ridge," or bump in the jet stream, will develop over the nation's midsection and expand. This will keep hot and dry weather over the central United States, but also, like June, prevent a merger of Pacific and Gulf moisture, while also cutting off the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast.

It's likely some of this Gulf moisture will stream across the southeast United States and it's entirely possible some of it makes it as far north as New England around mid-month. But from this juncture, we won't bet on it making enough difference to offset the overall dry precipitation pattern.

It's also worth noting that thunderstorm events this time of the year add variability to rainfall amounts, as we saw with the localized flash flooding in the final days of June.

For temperatures in July, we expect to be warmer-than-normal for most of the country. The exception to this will be in the Pacific Northwest, where a persistent "trough," or dip in the jet stream, will keep Pacific clouds, rain and cool temperatures in place.

The other exception may be in the southeastern United States where bouts of Gulf of Mexico moisture could keep temperatures slightly below normal.

Here at home, expect both high and low temperatures to run above normal, on average, for July, meaning those who love midsummer heat should be happy with what 2020 delivers!

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