This is this time of year that we see an uptick in Nor’easters. Most of our coastal storms undergo rapid intensification off the Delmarva Peninsula – as they make their way north. You can trace the roots of Monday’s coming storm to the Deep South. For Sunday, parts of Georgia and Florida were highlighted under a HIGH risk for severe weather – expecting violent, long lived tornadoes. Our early week's storm is already a formidable one, and it should continue to be a major storm by the time it gets here. How rare is this January severe weather outbreak? The last time Florida was placed under a HIGH risk for severe weather in January was in 2000!
Our thinking hasn’t changed much since yesterday. Winds will steadily increase overnight – between 15 and 25 MPH. Most of us stay dry overnight, and the heavy rain should hold off until after lunch time Monday.
Let’s talk about precipitation type: it will be rain along the coast – 1-3” of rain is likely, which could lead to some minor flooding.
West of 495 and into southern New Hampshire – snow, ice and sleet are possible. Minor accumulations are possible south of Fitchburg, but we could see moderate (4”+) accumulations north of there.
The heaviest precipitation will fall between 7 PM Monday and 5 AM Tuesday.
Wind: The strongest gusts will be along the coast, perhaps up to 70 MPH. Scattered power outages are possible in these areas. 40 to 50 MPH gusts are possible inland, which may cause isolated outages.
The storm will end by Tuesday afternoon – after that… nice weather returns!