New England stands on the cusp of our first stretch of tropical humidity this season. Fueled by a long-standing storm that’s been swirling over the southeast U.S. and now will move north to a position over Upstate New York and Pennsylvania, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm center means a southerly wind will move into New England Friday, transporting that new air to the six-state region.
Before that happens, though, much of New England is enjoying a great and dry Thursday, even as clouds increase for southern New England. While the South Coast finds some scattered showers arriving Thursday late morning through afternoon, ahead of the approaching humid air — and some of those showers will expand through Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts by day’s end – the rest of New England finds sun and clouds with a light onshore wind continuing, keeping coasts in the 60s while inland communities rise to the 70s and the North Country surpasses 80.
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The significant change in air from what has been relatively dry air to exceptional humidity for New England will take all night Thursday night and all day Friday to complete, and that’s why passing showers are in the forecast for that entire period. Of course, passing showers doesn’t mean a non-stop, steady rain! That said, any outdoor plans Friday have to be conducted with the knowledge showers very likely will come and go more than once or twice. When the humidity is in place Friday evening, we’ll feel it – especially in the southern half of New England where the dew point, or measure of the amount of moisture in the air, will reach 70 degrees, which is a soupy, tropical feeling.
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Air like this also makes it very easy to trigger showers and thunder, which is why the chance of rain is so high on each day into next week! That said, it does NOT mean it will rain non-stop all those days! We’ve heard from many who likely are turning to an app, seeing raindrops on every day, and concerned this pattern will bring non-stop rain. That’s where our First Alert forecasts on-air and in our videos online can really add value: timing and precision. We suggest trusting timing forecasts most day-of – when you watch NBC10 and NECN in the morning for that day – and the evening prior. Timing on forecasts 24 to 48 hours out can be a bit more tenuous in a pattern like this, where even weak disturbances can trigger showers, and timing outside of 48 hours can’t have too much stock put into it.
That said, right now we foresee a slug of rain overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning which we believe will lull for awhile mid-morning Saturday into early or mid-afternoon before new showers and storms fire up in humid air around 80 degrees Saturday afternoon. After another muggy night Saturday night, temperatures should return to either side of 80 Sunday, with the showers and thunder most likely to be focused from midday onward, though you’re outside that 48-hour window right now for later Saturday and Sunday.
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While we expect storms to be scattered, coming and going, it’s important to note the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere and the contrast between warm air at the surface and colder air aloft makes the setup favorable for some isolated flash flooding, wind gust damage and hailstones, as well as lightning. So, any weekend plans should be made with the idea everyone can take shelter in a building or car should a stronger storm approach, as tents, dugouts and other non-grounded structures aren’t safe places from lightning.
The same pattern continues into next week, with most of the action focused in the afternoons and humid air holding tight until later in the week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
