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Treasury yields retreat ahead of key economic data

Scott Olson

Traders signal offers in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index options pit at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Monday as another big week of economic data kicked off.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 4 basis points at 4.103%. Last week, it rose to levels last seen in December.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond slid about 2 basis points to 4.391%. Yields move inversely to prices.

The moves come as markets try to gauge when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key determinant of the trajectory of the economy and markets this year.

Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week. A preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely-watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday.

"I've never really seen a market, in a very long time, that hinges so much on economic data coming out," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management. "The market just clings to every single piece of economic data that comes out. And it keeps cheering it along."

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the economy to have grown by 2% for the final three months of 2023. That would mark a substantial decrease from the 4.9% growth seen in the prior quarter.

Elsewhere, economists forecast core PCE prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, will rise 0.2% for the month and 3% for the full year.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Friday that investors should be watching this data point when trying to plot the Fed's rate path.

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