FIRST ALERT: Wintry Mix Friday, Significant Storm This Weekend

Winter seems to be perking up across the northeast. We have had signals in the forecast for a while that colder air will return and support at last some snowfall with our next couple systems.

An arctic front sinks south through New England tonight. This has produced light snowfall across the mountains. A few flurries may fall across the Worcester Hills, but dry otherwise. The wind will pick up from the northwest overnight with gusts up to 25 mph. There will be a few more clouds, with temperatures falling to the teens overnight.

Highs will only be in the 20s for Thursday afternoon, but at least we will have some sunshine.

Thursday night into Friday, a weak low pressure system tracks through New England. At first we will have light snow across Boston, Western Massachusetts and areas to the north. Then as temperatures warm, the snow flips to a mix then rain Friday afternoon for Boston.

It will remain mainly snow for the Worcester Hills through southern New Hampshire and into northern New England. Coating to 2” of snow will be possible from Boston to Providence, 1-2” Hartford to Worcester, and 2-3” Berkshires, Green & White Mountains through early Friday afternoon.

More cold air drains into New England on Saturday. Saturday night the snow begins. Our next system will already bring a few inches of accumulation across the northeast by Sunday morning. We are still uncertain on the track of the storm, which would really affect snow totals.

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We have high confidence that heavy snow (several inches) will fall across Northern New England Sunday morning through afternoon. The freezing line starts offshore Sunday morning, so all of southern New England may see a few inches of snow, before flipping to freezing rain (possible ice storm?) by late morning. The Mix line could be between Providence and Manchester, New Hampshire.

That’s a large spread and will make a big difference on snowfall. High confidence that southeastern New England flips to rain for a few hours Sunday late morning to early afternoon as temps soar to the 40s & 50s. Then as the low pulls away from New England Sunday evening, arctic air takes over. Just before midnight, temps crash and a flash freeze is possible.

Rain flips back to snow for Boston, Rhode Island, and Connecticut for a few hours, possibly lasting through Monday morning. Wind gusts may be between 30 and 50 mph on the coast from the east, northeast Sunday morning, changing to the north by evening.

Minor coastal flooding or splashover is possible on east and northeast facing beaches during the morning high tide Sunday. Sunday evening high tide coincides with a northerly wind. Wave heights look to approach 15 feet offshore, but this may be during low tide Sunday afternoon.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day starts bitterly cold, windy, and snowy. Conditions will improve by the afternoon but the arctic chill will remain with highs in the low teens. Another round of a wintry mix or snow will be possible pretty much every day starting next Wednesday on the 10-day forecast. There will be a slight and quick warm up Thursday with highs in the low 40s. Back to the 20s into the next weekend.

Stay tuned to the NBC10 Boston & NECN First Alert forecast team as we iron out the details about this weekend storm.

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