Curran: Browns game comes at pivotal point in Pats' path to relevance originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
After scoring a total of 24 points in their first two games, the Patriots have now scored 24 or more in their past three.
Jugger-naughty!!?? Not really. There’s been some scoring assistance provided to the offense in there -- defensive touchdowns in the Packers and Lions wins -- and the Patriots are 4-for-11 scoring touchdowns after entering the red zone and 8-for-29 on third downs in the past three games. Those aren’t good. But it kinda stunned me when I went back and looked at the arc of the 2021 season.
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After five games, the Josh McDaniels-coordinated offense with rookie Mac Jones at the controls had eight offensive touchdowns.
This season, with Matt Patricia and a Mac Jones-Brian Hoyer-Bailey Zappe collaboration, they’ve got nine. The 2-3 records are identical.
So too are the red zone travails – last year’s edition was 6-for-16 in the red zone in the first five while Nick Folk was a machine with 14 field goals.
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They didn’t run the ball as well as they have this year. They had 400 rushing yards through five games last year; this year it’s 690 and they’ve been over five yards per carry in each of their past three games. Throwing it? It’s a convoluted story. They threw it more often last year but their average gain per attempt is WAY up in 2022, an indication they’ve been more aggressive downfield. Which we know.
As for opponent strength? Last year, they played the Dolphins, Jets, Saints, Bucs and Texans. This year it’s been Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Packers and Lions. So same mix. Two crap teams both years. Three OK-to-good teams this year, two OK teams and the Bucs last year.
The Patriots have -- in my opinion -- proven they have a better and more well-rounded defense than last year. But if they’re going to follow the same track as the 2021 team and go on a tear that propels them to the playoffs, the offense has to kick it in like it did at this time last year. Not because the immediate road ahead is daunting. But because the stretch run is.
In Week 6 last year, the Patriots found their footing in that 35-29 loss to the Cowboys. They weren’t prolific but they were efficient and they went on a subsequent binge, averaging 34 points per game over their next five. But their faceplant down the stretch made it seem like that run was all an illusion, a case of the Patriots having fattened up on awful or diminished teams that had no offensive punch.
Truth be told, the Lions game probably fits in that category as well. The "29" looks great but the fine details show a defensive touchdown, poor red zone play and a Lions offense complicit in its own demise.
The Cleveland test on Sunday feels more genuine than Detroit. Bill Belichick laid out the litany of weaponry Cleveland has.
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"This is a really pretty impressive team to watch," he began. "They have a lot of talent, a lot of elite talent. They're very well coached. It's going to be a big challenge here all the way across the board. They're good in all areas.
"Offensively, with Coach [Kevin] Stefanski and Coach [Bill] Callahan, this is a very good, very talented group and a very well coached unit, especially on the offensive line. They're probably as good as anybody we'll see. They really know what they're doing. Their fundamentals and techniques are very good.
"There's some good receivers. Obviously, [Amari] Cooper another very high-profile player. [David] Njoku a productive tight end. After Ozzie [Newsome] probably the best tight end the Browns have ever had, which that's saying something. [Donovan] Peoples-Jones and good skill players. Obviously [Nick] Chubb is as good as anybody we'll see and then [Kareem] Hunt. They've got a lot of backs and they're all good. But [Nick] Chubb, he's tough. … Again, this is 200 yards a game rushing and 26 points a game or whatever they're scoring. They can move the ball. They can score points. They can control the clock. They can keep their defense off the field.
"Defensively it's really one word, fast. Everybody's fast. Linebackers are fast. Secondary is fast. The D-line is fast. [Myles] Garrett and [Jadeveon] Clowney are as good of book ends as there are. … They play very fast and they're very disruptive, so they're one of the top teams in the league in three-and-outs. They get you in negative plays. They get you in long yardage and then it's all over. [Jadeveon] Clowney and [Myles] Garrett are certainly capable of wrecking the game on any play, run, and pass with their explosive speed, length, you name it."
There was way more but you get the picture. So the obvious question becomes whether the Patriots can go on the road with a third-string quarterback and take down a team that laden with talent.
Zappe’s already quarterbacked the Patriots to OT in Green Bay. And he’s quarterbacked a tidy and efficient home win against a low-IQ Lions team. Can he -- and the Patriots offense -- do enough to win if the Browns aren’t complicit in their own destruction?
Imagining Zappe in a semi-shootout making high-leverage plays in a tight game feels like a bridge too far. The Patriots will need Cleveland’s help in the same way they got it from Green Bay (for a half) and Detroit.
And the Browns -- who’ve held the lead in all five of their games heading to the final quarter yet are 2-3 -- are going to be determined not to give the Patriots the same help the Lions did.
