Groundhog Day 2024: Phil’s accuracy vs. Ms. G of Mass.

Friday is Groundhog Day! Its roots stretch back to ancient traditions, but as we know it today, it emerged in Pennsylvania Dutch communities by the 1840s.

Back then, hedgehogs were the weather predictors, but upon arriving in America, German settlers swapped them for the abundant groundhogs.

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Every February, a furry animal tells Americans how long winter will last, but do you know why?

The iconic Punxsutawney Phil came onto the scene in 1887, though the interpretation of his shadow only formed in the 1990s. As for accuracy? Phil's shadow sightings predict six more weeks of winter roughly 40% of the time, leaving him with a success rate about as reliable as a coin flip.

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While not exactly weather prophecy gold, the lighthearted tradition continues to capture hearts and spark conversation each Feb. 2.

What it means if a groundhog does or doesn't see their shadow on Groundhog Day — either six more weeks of winter or an early spring. — What it means if a groundhog does or doesn't see their shadow on Groundhog Day

By the way, did you know we have our own groundhog in Massachusetts? Her name is Ms. G and she actually boasts a more impressive forecasting record compared to Phil.

Since her debut in 2008, she's predicted an early spring (no shadow) 64% of the time, compared to Phil's 30%.

Punxsutawney Phil made his annual appearance in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania and predicted six more weeks of winter.

It's important to remember that groundhog predictions are more folklore than science, and their accuracy should be taken with a grain of salt — even Ms. G's impressive stats.

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This year, with significant cloud cover forecast for Friday morning in both Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and Lincoln, Massachusetts, where Ms. G makes her prediction at Drumlin Farm, I’m thinking the groundhogs won’t see their shadow and the animals will tell us we’ll be in for six more weeks of winter. There is a chance that the deck of clouds breaks up a bit, right in time for the ceremonies, so we shall see!

A map showing the cloud cover and spotty precipitation expected on Friday across the Northeast, including in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and Lincoln, Massachusetts, on Groundhog Day 2024.

Either way, given the climatological shift in our winters leaning towards more late-season snow and shots of cold, if Ms. G or Phil were to ask me my thoughts: six more weeks of winter it is.