When Will the Coronavirus Peak Hit Your State?

Updated information shows the worst of the surge may have already passed for three New England states

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The latest data showing the projections for when the coronavirus surge could hit each New England state and how many people could die have changed dramatically from late March.

On March 30, the projections showed that the estimated peak ranges were from April 9 for Vermont to April 20 for New Hampshire. But that has already changed as new data continues to come in.

In a paper produced with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modeled when all 50 states will see a surge in cases.

Researchers had predicted that the spread of the virus was likely to peak in Massachusetts around April 14. But that date has now moved back to April 28, which is outside Gov. Charlie Baker's projected April 10 to April 20 range. The projected death total has risen dramatically, from 1,782 to 8,219, but the shortage of beds has almost been erased, dropping from over 3,000 to 342.

COVID-19 projections

StateEstimated peakBeds neededBeds availableBed shortageDeaths projected through Aug. 4, 2020
ConnecticutApril 255,7301,7383,9925,426
MaineApril 14831,061063
MassachusettsApril 285,1904,8483428,219
New HampshireApril 141431,018079
Rhode IslandMay 2942795147984
VermontApril 155533036

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

Connecticut's surge is now expected on April 25, compared to an earlier projection of April 10. The number of projected deaths in that state has risen greatly as well, going from 378 to 5,426.

And Rhode Island, which was originally looking at an April 19 peak, is now looking at about two weeks later on May 2. The projected death totals have risen from 351 to 984.

In northern New England, however, the picture appears to have improved greatly from late March.

The data shows that Maine's peak has already passed, hitting on April 14 instead of April 25 as initially projected. The anticipated deaths have dropped dramatically, from 373 to 63.

New Hampshire's peak was originally expected to be at the end of April, but like Maine it now appears to have occurred on April 14. Projected death totals have decreased from 351 to 79.

Vermont's peak appears to have long since passed on April 1. The projected death totals there have now dropped from 95 to 36.

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The University of Washington model incorporates measures the states have already taken to slow new infections, such as closing schools and non-essential businesses.

Overall, it projects nearly 15,000 people in New England could die by early August. More than 1,700 people in the region have already died as a result of the coronavirus.

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