Basketball is back and it's more unpredictable than ever.
Last season, the Denver Nuggets won their first NBA title -- one year after finishing as the West's No. 6 seed. The Miami Heat made the NBA Finals as the East's No. 8 seed, upsetting the conference's top two teams in the process.
All that to say, sleeper teams emerge every single season. But, the thing is, no one knows exactly what teams will have that surprising success.
Here are five sleeper teams that could emerge as the biggest overachievers during the 2023-24 season:
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Oklahoma City Thunder
2022-23 record: 40-42, lost play-in tournament
Offseason moves: Drafted Cason Wallace and Keyontae Johnson, traded for Davis Bertans, signed Vasilije Micić (from EuroLeague)
Why they could overachieve: The Thunder went 25-21 after the calendar flipped to 2023 last season. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC has a young core that's ready to make another leap. Big man Chet Holmgren, who was picked second overall in 2022 and missed all of last season, should help fix their biggest weakness down low. It's been a long rebuild, but the Thunder are ready to compete for a playoff spot.
Orlando Magic
2022-23 record: 34-48, 13th in East
Offseason moves: Drafted Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Andre Jackson Jr., signed Joe Ingles
Why they could overachieve: Orlando is relying on internal improvement -- the same thing it did last season, when Franz Wagner and Co. improved by 12 wins. Paolo Banchero, entering his second season after being the No. 1 overall pick in 2022, gained valuable experience on Team USA this summer. Plus, the Magic still have solid depth pieces behind Wagner and Banchero with Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris and Cole Anthony -- and two lottery picks with Black and Howard.
San Antonio Spurs
2022-23 record: 22-60, 15th in West
Offseason moves: Drafted Victor Wembanyama and Sidy Cissoko, traded for Cedi Osman
Why they could overachieve: Can one player completely turn around a franchise? We're about to find out. Wembanyama has shined in the preseason, showing that he could be a legitimate star immediately. Gregg Popovich reaffirmed his commitment to coaching by signing a five-year extension. And the young cast around Wemby is young but talented: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Tre Jones and Zach Collins. If the French forward is as good as advertised, the Spurs could fight for a play-in spot.
Indiana Pacers
2022-23 record: 35-47, 11th in East
Offseason moves: Drafted Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, Mojave King and Isaiah Wong, traded for Obi Toppin, signed Bruce Brown
Why they could overachieve: Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has ascended to star status, which makes the Pacers, at worst, fun to watch. But they made moves to round out the roster this summer, acquiring playoff-tested veteran Bruce Brown and high-flying forward Obi Toppin. Indiana didn't lose any key pieces and should expect improvement from Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and Isaiah Jackson.
Houston Rockets
2022-23 record: 22-60, 14th in West
Offseason moves: Hired Ime Udoka, drafted Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, signed Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale, Jeff Green, Reggie Bullock and Aaron Holiday
Why they could overachieve: The pieces are slowly coming together in Houston. With a boatload of cap space this summer, the Rockets added VanVleet (an All-Star point guard), Brooks (an All-NBA defender) and several veteran role players. Combine those players with their young talent and a proven new head coach, and the Rockets could surprise some people. Udoka transformed the Celtics' defense two years ago -- something that Houston badly needs to improve after finishing bottom five in points allowed for three straight seasons under Stephen Silas.
