A powerful upper-level disturbance moving east out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a pool of cold air in the sky over New England is generating fast-moving showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Our weather team has declared a First Alert – a heads-up for potentially impactful storm through 8 p.m. Monday.
Although damaging or strong thunderstorms won't be widespread, the abundance of cold air and energy aloft will mean at least some storms will have the potential to produce hailstones, frequent lightning and the possibility of some locally damaging wind.
After 8 p.m., the strength of showers and thunderstorms wanes considerably and after 11 p.m., most of the showers will diminish, giving way to clearing sky overnight except in northern Maine where the rain will end as another two to four inches of wet snow by morning.
Tomorrow and Wednesday should be nice days as some clouds will billow Tuesday afternoon with another upper-level disturbance and a few showers are possible by day’s end, particularly in northern New England, but those should not be widespread.
With a clear sky, low dew points, and light wind… tomorrow night will be coldest of this outbreak and pretty much the end of it with lows near freezing for many.
A few more low temperature records are likely but it will be warm by the afternoon with lots of sunshine and temperatures will be pleasant with highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees.
Our next chance of showers looks like Thursday evening or night, continuing into Friday but coming coincident with a southerly wind that will boost high temperatures into the 70s Friday afternoon, also increasing the risk for thunderstorms.
This weekend, New England sits on a line between cool Canadian air and the warmer air of Friday, still sitting just to our south, making for a challenging forecast. There will be a sharp temperature difference lowering the confidence in forecasts for cloud cover, wind direction and temperature.
For now, we believe Saturday will turn out well for New England, and a chance of showers may mount again Sunday with temperatures in the 60s into next week as seen in our First Alert 10-Day Forecast.