New, delightful air has arrived to New England!
A Monday night cold frontal passage shifted the wind to blow from the north, opening the door to a chunk of cooler, drier Canadian air thrust southward in the clockwise flow of air around a dome of high pressure, or fair weather, building southeast through Ontario. The north and northeast wind will remain fresh at 10-20 mph Monday afternoon, creating a two to four foot chop on the ocean waters.
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Meanwhile, while our exclusive, First Alert 10-day forecast averages about 5-6 degrees cooler than normal for the upcoming stretch, a massive dome of heat is developing in the nation’s midsection, with Excessive Heat Warnings owing to dangerous heat index values up to 115 degrees from Texas and Louisiana all the way north to Minnesota and Wisconsin! Not only is our flow of cool air from Canada protecting New England from that heat, but also from an increasingly busy Tropical Atlantic – at least for now.
The biggest concern for New England during this annual peak in tropical activity is if a southerly wind flow develops through the atmosphere, opening the door for storms to move north from the Atlantic, but that doesn’t appear to be the setup for us over the next 10 days, thanks to recurring cold fronts that are the product of northern jet stream disturbances. So, instead, New England will see showers when each of these jet stream disturbances passes, with our next round of showers arriving to the Northern and Western mountains Thursday afternoon, then to the remainder of New England Thursday night, lasting as periodic rain with embedded thunder into Friday, infused with a piece of moisture that was once the Western U.S. Hurricane Hilary.
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Depending on the intensity and timing of the rain, a First Alert may be needed for impact from the rain Friday – there’s also the chance thunderstorms could grow strong in Southern New England as humid air makes a brief comeback on an increasing southerly wind. Even Saturday enough moisture will linger in the air – evident by a continued humid feeling – for passing disturbances aloft to touch off scattered showers or thunder, especially during the afternoon.
The chance of showers drops Sunday though isn’t zero – it’s still possible a shower sneaks back into the forecast, though that isn’t our expectation at this point – then the chance of showers looks low next week, even as what is likely to be Hurricane Franklin passes near or over Bermuda, trucking north but likely to turn northeast while still safely to our southeast.
