There is still some uncertainty with our short-term forecast. Forecast models having a difficult time placing the axis of heaviest rain. Across the Delmarva Peninsula, there have been reports of a widespread one-to-four inches of rain – so far.
The question remains: will that heavy rain hit southern New England or will is pass offshore? Cape Cod, the Islands, and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island have the highest likelihood of heavy rain.
The heaviest rain will fall during the evening and through part of the overnight. The Cape and Islands could see up to three inches of rain. This area may also see some damaging wind gusts. It's possible gusts may reach 60 mph and it's likely coastal communities will experience gusts to 45 mph. As the storm departs Tuesday morning, northeast winds will keep the clouds in place at the coast. We won't see nicer weather until Wednesday.
If you're keeping tabs, it has been a wet summer. In June, Boston saw a 1.17-inch surplus, July just over half an inch above normal and August is already wetter than normal. The heaviest rain from this storm will likely stay just south of Logan Airport (the official observation site of Boston).
We've avoided significant heat over the last couple of weeks. In fact, Boston hasn't hit 90 degrees in 16 days. If you look at the exclusive NBC Boston 10-day forecast, it appears that stretch will continue for an additional 10 days! If you're a fan of the heat, don't worry. Longer range forecast models are hinting at a significant warm-up for the second half of the month.
Tropics are still active – Tropical Storm Franklin still could become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Right now, it is a strong tropical storm just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The other area we were watching in the central Atlantic doesn't look very impressive. Although no eastern Atlantic hurricanes are on the horizon, this is the time of year it turns active.