In a repetitive weather pattern of repeated shower chances, perhaps our most important job on the First Alert Weather Team is to help identify days and times of day that are most favorable for outdoor plans.
Although that’s not necessarily an easy task with so many bundles of atmospheric energy aloft revolving around the slow-moving, large upper-level storm over the eastern Great Lakes, there are some times we can tease out as most likely and least likely for widespread showers One such break in the action comes for awhile Tuesday, as the overnight and early morning showers and downpours push north out of southern New England, settling into the North Country much of the day (except northern Maine) but leaving southern New England with improving conditions for several hours as low clouds and fog gradually lift, and eventually feature some holes for peeks of sunshine by afternoon.
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South and west of Boston – through Hartford and Springfield, included – enough sun breaks out for temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees, while communities from northern Massachusetts, points north and east hold onto cooler air in the 60s and lots of clouds. Where temperatures rise, a few showers will develop Tuesday afternoon and will drift east, so that most of New England ends up with at least the chance for a few passing showers in the afternoon through evening, before they melt away overnight Tuesday night with patchy fog and breaking clouds.
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The heart of the large, jet stream level storm moves over New England Wednesday afternoon. Loaded with cold air several thousand feet above the ground, the difference in temperature between a warm ground and cold sky will mean clouds build Wednesday with scattered showers and thunder erupting from midday onward. With so much cold air aloft, it’s even possible a few storms drop some hailstones – balls of ice – or a brief strong wind gust to some communities later in the afternoon to early evening.
A First Alert has been issued for Wednesday evening for severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds.
Thursday brings a bit of a break at the jet stream level: the slow moving storm that’s been disturbing our weather shifts east, while a new disturbance dives into the Great Lakes out of Canada – this break will afford a quieter day of weather with only an isolated late day shower, but the new disturbance approaching from the west arrives Friday with renewed scattered showers and thunder from midday onward through the evening.
As has been the case lately, any disturbance crossing New England takes its time with a relatively weak steering flow aloft, meaning Saturday likely will also bring scattered showers and thunder in the afternoon, but our First Alert Team remains cautiously optimistic for improvement Father’s Day and perhaps even into early next week if the next approaching disturbance slows enough to our south and west.
