The weekend's here and the temperatures are soaring.
We'll be on the verge of a heat wave in many spots, thanks to warming in all levels of the atmosphere. While the heat peaks on Monday, the humidity will be around through Tuesday.
The biggest issue this weekend is who will see the storms — and when. Guidance (I use that term loosely .. it hasn't been much help) suggests that the threat for a passing shower will be Saturday morning, with a threat for storms late Saturday afternoon and evening. I went old-school and ignored the forecasted locations/times for storms that the models spit out and instead looked at the upper atmosphere for clues. We have a strong jet streak (high-altitude winds) scooting through around 5-10 p.m. It provides the lift and "venting" (think opening the draft in a fireplace or wood stove) to get the storms rolling. So, plainly put, that's our best time for storms.
Not everyone is under the gun for thunderstorms, however. Towns and cities south of the Massachusetts Turnpike have the best chance, but even here, we're not talking about widespread coverage. If you do get tagged, plan on brief, torrential rain, gusty winds and possibly small hail. All the action moves away (along with the jet streak) after midnight.
For Father's Day, we're seeing more heat — without the storm threat. While both weekend days are awesome for the beach, Sunday is looking like a good one to stay late into the evening without the worry for storms. Just make sure dad keeps his shirt on. We don't need any sasquatch sightings. 😊
Sticky air will be here through Tuesday, and it's then that we have a chance for some more storms. The remnants of our tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will be chugging north towards the Mid-Atlantic states. While we may miss out on the soaking rain, simply its proximity to an approaching front may be enough to fuel more numerous storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Fingers crossed for some good water.
Drier air follows on Wednesday and stays through Friday, exactly how it played out this week. Repetitive weather patterns are cool like that.
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Have a great weekend!