With the New Hampshire presidential primary just two weeks away, a couple of recent polls show Nikki Haley is trailing former President Donald Trump, but by exactly how much is up for debate.
One poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that 39% of likely Republican voters are voting for Trump, with Nikki Haley close behind at 32%, then Chris Christie at 12%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 8% and Ron DeSantis at 5%. But a Suffolk University poll gives Trump a much wider margin – with 46% of the vote compared to Haley's 27%, followed by Chris Christie at 12% and Ron DeSantis at 8%.
"The two polls tend to show two very different stories. But again, I think that right now, it is fluid enough that either one could be true," New Hampshire political strategist Scott Spradling told NBC10 Boston Tuesday.
Political strategists and pollsters alike emphasized that independent voters are always a big question mark in the New Hampshire presidential primary election, and a lot of them will wait until the last minute to make up their minds.
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"I think one of the big differences between the two polls is the amount of emphasis that's placed on independent, undeclared voters," Spradling said. "That is always the big question mark and big X factor in a New Hampshire presidential primary."
Upwards of 50% of voters make up their minds on who they're going to vote for in the last weekend, while upwards of 20 to 25% make up their minds on Election Day, according to Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center and a political science professor.
"What we're seeing now is that with Trump and Haley, they both are the only two really kind of popular candidates across the range of the Republican Party," Smith said. "Other things could happen between now and the primary two weeks from now, but it's starting to settle down into what we see, like a two-person race between Trump and Haley."
More on the New Hampshire primary
The opinions of New Hampshire voters vary greatly at this stage of the race.
"I'm pretty much decided. I believe it's going to be Nikki Haley," said Sharon Whitcher of Chester. "I like the idea that she's going to address immigrants, I like the idea that she's going to stop business with China. There's a lot of things that she’s got good ideas about."
"Who would be the next best candidate after Donald Trump? Because I'm not voting Trump," said John Sokul of Hampton. "I just think he's done some very bad things and he doesn't have the best interest of the country at heart."
"I am not decided," said Paul Phillips of Plymouth. "I'm trying to choose between writing in Biden or voting for another candidate. We need to stand by the president and make sure we have a strong Democratic voice going into the general election."
Germain Bolduc of Manchester is voting for Biden.
"He did good for the country. He did good for us, so I'll still back him up," Bolduc said.
Carmen Bertran of Manchester is still undecided, but "definitely" voting for a Democrat and expressed her disdain for Donald Trump.
"I hate him. He's a pig. He's a sexist, racist homophobic pig, and you can put that on TV," Bertran said. "He represents everything I despise. I wish we had Obama back."
