Wednesday sunshine comes ahead of a parade of disturbances that will raise the chance of showers in our New England forecast, but won’t provide non-stop rain in a stretch of busy days for events and festivities regionwide.
Cooler temps and showers move in overnight, then a rebound Thursday
A disturbance responsible for tornadoes in the South-Central United States Tuesday evening and night is quickly moving northeast and will cross New England in a weakening form overnight Wednesday night with a round of showers. At the same time, a cold front on the move out of Atlantic Canada will push through Maine overnight and end up slowing and stalling over Eastern Massachuestts and New Hampshire Thursday morning, defining the western edge of cool, maritime air that will hold Thursday high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s east while Western New England recovers to the 60s and 70s – with the Lower Connecticut River Valley pushing 80°!
More scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
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Aside from scattered Thursday showers possible just about anywhere in New England, in the warmth of upstate New York and western New England some thunderstorms will fire up Thursday afternoon and evening, and may become strong to severe with locally damaging wind and hail a concern.
Looking dry for the Red Sox Home Opener
While Western New England will be on guard into Thursday evening, the storms will weaken to showers, downpours and embedded thunder as they push into the cooler ocean air Thursday evening and night, eventually fizzling by Friday morning as a drying west wind takes hold for a fair sky and pleasant air at Fenway Park as the Red Sox open their first homestand of 2022.
Tracking conditions for the holiday weekend
A follow-up disturbance will touch off scattered Friday afternoon and evening showers in Northern and Western New England ahead of a fair Saturday with highs in the 60s…then a cold front marching across New England Saturday evening and night will touch off yet some new scattered showers.
Easter Sunday brings cool air – once cold enough for the midweek blizzard in the Northern Plains, but by Sunday, modified enough to support highs in the 50s under fair sky. Our First Alert Team has been closely watching the timing on the next disturbance for any indication of an impact to Marathon Monday on Patriots Day, but thankfully the trend has been opposite of impact – a slowing that continues to lend support to our idea of holding rain off until overnight Monday night, focused heaviest on Tuesday, affording a fair running of the Boston Marathon with an onshore headwind keeping temperatures in the 50s for highs at the finish line and perhaps around 60 farther inland.
Tuesday’s steady rain may linger into Wednesday in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, with rather cool spring air lasting the week.