Finally it’s here -- the showers and the steady rain -- though it’s not nearly enough to put a dent in the drought. Our water deficits run deep – easily 3 to 9 inches area-wide. So, if this were a series of rain events coming, we’d be in good graces. Instead, this is one of those “some-get-doused-some-get-ditched" situations.
Best chance for the soaking rain -- a half inch or more -- is anywhere south of the border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Sadly, this leaves the Merrimack Valley in limbo. There could be some bands of rain that reach that far north, but it’s iffy. All told, the best chance for steady and briefly heavy rain is later tonight and into the wee hours of Friday morning.
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Some of our guidance is really hitting the rain hard from Narragansett Bay through the Cape: projections freak out near 3 inches! While this is possible with the tropical nature of this system, it’s very hard to pin down exactly where this may fall.
There's a chance of localized flash flooding Thursday afternoon, coupled with a dense fog advisory in effect until 10 a.m. for the south shore and Cape Cod.
Friday itself will see the rain pull away early and the clouds linger along the coast. Eventually, the dry air will win out, and the sun will take charge. But the cooler air will be in place by then, and the stage is set for a fall-like start to the weekend.
Indeed, the highs Saturday will struggle to make it to 70 degrees with a stiff onshore wind. Sunday recovers a bit, but the clouds return for a chance at a late day shower.
We’ll be counting the raindrops as they fall. Good luck in the rain lottery!