It’s a nice, peaceful Thursday… before the storm brewing in the south barrels up the coast and delivers wind, rain and snow to New England.
Oftentimes, the days leading up to a major weather event get lost in the anticipation of the storm. I’m trying not to focus too much attention on this weekend’s storm because we have two days before it arrives. More candidly, it’s hard to nail down specifics on a storm that keeps waffling- which is the case with this one.
We do have a rough draft that we’re going by: strong winds at the coast, a boatload of rain, and a change from rain to snow. The latter is a rather common thread in early-season snow events, with marginally cold air sweeping into the circulation as it passes.
We’ll initially start as rain Friday night in most spots, then as the storm strengthens offshore, the cold will play a factor in who/where we see the changeover. Our guidance varies on the time of switchover, so we’ll plainly put it as “overnight” on Saturday night, starting first in the Worcester Hills, then descending to the coast toward Sunday morning.
It’s important to note that this storm is already loaded with water, and it will only gather more in its journey from the south. We’re seeing signs of at least 1-2” of heavy rain before the changeover, so rivers and streams will be on the rise. Gusts are also a concern, but the focus for the strongest wind is track-dependent, and hard to pin down who’s most at risk for damage.
Suffice it to say that some gusts could be as high as 40-50 mph, favoring all spots along the coast at this point. We’ll definitely refine that as we get closer to the weekend.
As far as snow amounts are concerned, there could be as much as 3” inches all the way to I-495 with lesser amounts inside, and perhaps a coating to an inch along the coast. I’m playing it very conservative at this point, and admittedly, I may get burned.
A storm of this caliber can be an over-achiever in all senses, so it’s wise to remember the old football adage, “Give no quarter, take no quarter” and stay vigilant. Things are sure to change, and we’ll be on top of them the whole way.